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Independent Analyst
The Dollar
The dollar closed below the 200 day MA the previous week, then printed its lowest point on Monday, day 26, to place it in its timing band for a daily cycle low.
The dollar printed a bullish reversal on Monday then formed a swing low and closed back above the 200 day MA on Tuesday to indicate that day 26 was the daily cycle low. The dollar delivered bullish follow through by closing above the 10 day MA on Friday. Currently, the dollar is in a daily downtrend and will remain so unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.
The dollar has printed its lowest point this week, following the week 10 peak. This was week 17, which is early for an intermediate cycle low. The trade war and global currency manipulation has caused the dollar’s cycles to become irregular so a 17 week ICL is certainly possible. The dollar printed a bullish weekly candle off support from the 50 week MA. So if a weekly swing low forms, that would indicate that week 17 was the intermediate cycle low. A break above 97.68 will form a weekly swing low. The dollar currently is in a weekly uptrend. The dollar will continue in its weekly uptrend unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.
Stocks
Stocks have been coiling above the upper daily cycle band for the past 2 weeks until Friday.
Stocks closed above the consolation box on Friday. The new high on Friday, day 16, begins to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless the close below the lower daily cycle band. We are starting to see breakouts across the different sectors.
The QQQ"s, Transports, Semiconductors, and the Financials all had breakouts this week. The breakouts indicate a new intermediate cycle has begun.
Stocks broke out of its weekly triangle consolidation and closed above the upper stem this week. The close above the upper stem of the triangle consolidation has us labeling week 17 as the intermediate cycle low, making this week 3 of the new intermediate cycle. Currently, stocks are in a weekly uptrend. They will remain in its weekly uptrend unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.
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