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LikesMoney Independent Analyst

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 29, placing it in its timing band for daily cycle low.

The dollar did break below the daily cycle trend line on Tuesday. So it is possible that Tuesday is the daily cycle low. While a swing low formed on Thursday, the dollar appears to be forming a bearish flag. At this point we will use a close back above the 10 day MA to label day 29 as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

The dollar is very deep in its timing band for its yearly cycle decline. A left translated weekly cycle is needed to begin the yearly cycle decline. A peak on week 5 would align with a left translated weekly cycle formation. The dollar formed a weekly bearish reversal last week and delivered bearish follow through this week by forming a weekly swing high. This sets up a possible left translated weekly cycle formation. A close below the 10 week MA would indicate the intermediate cycle decline. Currently, the dollar is in a weekly uptrend. The dollar will continue in its weekly uptrend unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 44, to place them deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks did form a swing low on Thursday but remained contained by the convergence of the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Friday. We will need to see a close above those two moving averages for confirmation of a new daily cycle. Stocks have begun to close below the lower daily cycle band this week. That ended the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. And daily downtrends are associated with intermediate cycle declines.

This was week 9 the intermediate cycle. Stocks formed a weekly swing high the previous week and this week closed lower, to close below the 10 week MA. This is a signal that stocks are beginning their intermediate cycle decline. However, stocks formed a bullish weekly reversal above support from the 50 week MA. Stocks are now caught between the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA. Stocks will need to either close above the 10 week MA or below the 50 week MA in order for a trending move to develop. Currently, stocks are in a weekly uptrend. If a weekly swing low forms above the lower weekly cycle band then stocks remain in their weekly uptrend.

Author

LikesMoney

Independent Analyst

Assets (such as stocks, gold, and the dollar) have identifiable cycles.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.