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Independent Analyst
The Dollar
The dollar printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 29, placing it in its timing band for daily cycle low.
The dollar did break below the daily cycle trend line on Tuesday. So it is possible that Tuesday is the daily cycle low. While a swing low formed on Thursday, the dollar appears to be forming a bearish flag. At this point we will use a close back above the 10 day MA to label day 29 as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.
The dollar is very deep in its timing band for its yearly cycle decline. A left translated weekly cycle is needed to begin the yearly cycle decline. A peak on week 5 would align with a left translated weekly cycle formation. The dollar formed a weekly bearish reversal last week and delivered bearish follow through this week by forming a weekly swing high. This sets up a possible left translated weekly cycle formation. A close below the 10 week MA would indicate the intermediate cycle decline. Currently, the dollar is in a weekly uptrend. The dollar will continue in its weekly uptrend unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.
Stocks
Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 44, to place them deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.
Stocks did form a swing low on Thursday but remained contained by the convergence of the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Friday. We will need to see a close above those two moving averages for confirmation of a new daily cycle. Stocks have begun to close below the lower daily cycle band this week. That ended the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. And daily downtrends are associated with intermediate cycle declines.
This was week 9 the intermediate cycle. Stocks formed a weekly swing high the previous week and this week closed lower, to close below the 10 week MA. This is a signal that stocks are beginning their intermediate cycle decline. However, stocks formed a bullish weekly reversal above support from the 50 week MA. Stocks are now caught between the 10 week MA and the 50 week MA. Stocks will need to either close above the 10 week MA or below the 50 week MA in order for a trending move to develop. Currently, stocks are in a weekly uptrend. If a weekly swing low forms above the lower weekly cycle band then stocks remain in their weekly uptrend.
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