Weekend Report Preview

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday.

Thursday was day 23 for the dollar's daily cycle.  That places the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low.  The dollar had a big day on Friday.  It formed a daily swing low and closed convincingly above the 10 day MA to confirm that Thursday was the daily cycle low.  The dollar has begun a daily downtrend.  It will remain in its daily downtrend unless it can close above its upper daily cycle band.

The failed daily cycle and the weekly swing high confirms that the dollar has begun its intermediate cycle decline. At 12 weeks, that allows enough time for one more failed daily cycle before the dollar prints its ICL.  However, we need to acknowledge that there is manipulation of the currency markets.  The dollar printed an early 10 week ICL in March and the bullish weekly reversal this week does set the dollar up for forming a weekly swing low next week. Currently, the dollar is in a weekly uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

June is month 16 for the yearly dollar cycle. The dollar's yearly cycle averages 9.7 months so that places the dollar late in its timing band for a yearly cycle decline.  The dollar has formed a monthly swing high here in June. The dollar printed a failed daily cycle which triggered the intermediate cycle decline which should lead to the yearly cycle decline.  The dollar is in a monthly uptrend.  It will remain in its monthly uptrend unless it closes below the lower monthly cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks had a strong initial thrust out of its ICL that caused them to close above the 50 day MA.

Stocks got a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and is forming a mini bull flag which should allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price.  Stocks did close above the upper daily cycle band on Monday which ends the daily downtrend and begins a daily uptrend. And closing above the upper daily cycle band also indicates that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

Stocks printed their lowest point week on week 23 to place them in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low.  Stocks have formed a weekly swing low, broke above the declining weekly trend line, and closed above the 10 week MA all of which confirms the new intermediate cycle.  Stocks  are in a weekly uptrend.  Since the weekly swing low formed above the upper weekly cycle band, then stocks will remain in their weekly uptrend and this triggers a weekly cycle band buy signal.