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Independent Analyst
The Dollar
The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on Wednesday to form a failed daily cycle.
The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 18. That places the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The approaching 200 day MA is a likely spot to provide support to the dollar and could trigger an early DCL. The dollar has begun to close below the lower daily cycle band. This ends the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. Closing below the lower daily cycle band also signals that the intermediate cycle decline has begun.
The dollar formed a bearish weekly reversal on week 9 and has gone on to form a weekly swing high this week. Remember that the dollar is late in its timing band for a yearly cycle decline and needs a left translated weekly cycle formation to usher in the yearly cycle decline. The peak on week 9 can still form as a left translated weekly cycle formation. The close below 10 week MA confirms that the intermediate cycle decline has begun. Currently, the dollar is in a weekly uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.
Stocks
Stocks continued to rally out of its daily cycle low.
Stocks regained the 200 day MA on Tuesday and the 50 day MA on Friday. Stocks are still in a daily downtrend. However a close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a daily uptrend. And closing above the upper daily cycle band will also indicate that the intermediate cycle low has been set.
Stocks did not print a failed daily cycle but I am convinced that stocks have printed their intermediate cycle low. Stocks did print a lower low this week. This is week 23 for the intermediate equity cycle. That places stocks in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Aside from printing a failed daily cycle, stocks have essentially satisfied the conditions for an intermediate cycle low. Stocks printed a huge bullish engulfing candle this week and also regained the 50 week MA. Stocks also closed above the declining weekly trend line. A break above 2884.97 forms a weekly swing low to confirm the new intermediate cycle. Stocks are in a weekly uptrend. Once a weekly swing low forms above the lower weekly cycle band that will trigger a weekly cycle band buy signal.
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