Weekend Report Preview

LikesMoney Independent Analyst

The Dollar

The dollar broke below the previous daily cycle low on Wednesday to form a failed daily cycle.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 18. That places the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. The approaching 200 day MA is a likely spot to provide support to the dollar and could trigger an early DCL. The dollar has begun to close below the lower daily cycle band. This ends the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. Closing below the lower daily cycle band also signals that the intermediate cycle decline has begun.

The dollar formed a bearish weekly reversal on week 9 and has gone on to form a weekly swing high this week. Remember that the dollar is late in its timing band for a yearly cycle decline and needs a left translated weekly cycle formation to usher in the yearly cycle decline. The peak on week 9 can still form as a left translated weekly cycle formation. The close below 10 week MA confirms that the intermediate cycle decline has begun. Currently, the dollar is in a weekly uptrend and will remain so unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks continued to rally out of its daily cycle low.

Stocks regained the 200 day MA on Tuesday and the 50 day MA on Friday. Stocks are still in a daily downtrend. However a close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and begin a daily uptrend. And closing above the upper daily cycle band will also indicate that the intermediate cycle low has been set.

Stocks did not print a failed daily cycle but I am convinced that stocks have printed their intermediate cycle low. Stocks did print a lower low this week. This is week 23 for the intermediate equity cycle. That places stocks in its timing band for an intermediate cycle low. Aside from printing a failed daily cycle, stocks have essentially satisfied the conditions for an intermediate cycle low. Stocks printed a huge bullish engulfing candle this week and also regained the 50 week MA. Stocks also closed above the declining weekly trend line. A break above 2884.97 forms a weekly swing low to confirm the new intermediate cycle. Stocks are in a weekly uptrend. Once a weekly swing low forms above the lower weekly cycle band that will trigger a weekly cycle band buy signal.

Author

LikesMoney

Independent Analyst

Assets (such as stocks, gold, and the dollar) have identifiable cycles.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.