Weekend Report Preview

LikesMoney Independent Analyst

The Dollar

The dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Monday and continued lower to print its lowest point on Friday, day 17.

There have been 3 daily cycles since printing the intermediate cycle low in January. They have run short at 14 days, 19 days and 14 days respectively. The dollar could continue that trend of shortened daily cycles if Friday, day 17, becomes the DCL. If so, that would form a higher low. If a higher low forms, that would signal that this was the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle. That aligns with the dollar being in a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then the dollar will remain in its daily uptrend.

The weekly cycle counts have not been clear. If the dollar confirms Friday as a daily cycle low, then we will need to label week 10 as an early intermediate cycle low. What is clear is that the dollar is in a weekly uptrend. It will remain so unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks continued higher this week, printing a high high on Friday, day 25. The new high on day 25 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation, which aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Stocks will continue in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

Since printing the day 14 half cycle low stocks have accelerated higher. Friday's swing low allows us to construct an accelerated trend line. A swing high with a close below the accelerated trend line would be a signal of a daily cycle decline.

Stocks printed a new weekly high this week. A new high on week 15 shifts the odds towards a right translated weekly cycle formation. With the current daily cycle right translating, stocks will need a 3rd daily cycle to usher in the intermediate cycle decline. Which will make it likely that stocks will test the all time highs before this intermediate cycle tops. Stocks continue to close above the upper weekly cycle band indicating that they are in a weekly uptrend. They will remain in their weekly uptrend unless they close below the lower weekly cycle band.

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LikesMoney

Independent Analyst

Assets (such as stocks, gold, and the dollar) have identifiable cycles.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.