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Independent Analyst
The Dollar
The dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Monday and continued lower to print its lowest point on Friday, day 17.
There have been 3 daily cycles since printing the intermediate cycle low in January. They have run short at 14 days, 19 days and 14 days respectively. The dollar could continue that trend of shortened daily cycles if Friday, day 17, becomes the DCL. If so, that would form a higher low. If a higher low forms, that would signal that this was the first daily cycle of a new intermediate cycle. That aligns with the dollar being in a daily uptrend. If a swing low forms above the lower daily cycle band then the dollar will remain in its daily uptrend.
The weekly cycle counts have not been clear. If the dollar confirms Friday as a daily cycle low, then we will need to label week 10 as an early intermediate cycle low. What is clear is that the dollar is in a weekly uptrend. It will remain so unless it closes below the lower weekly cycle band.
Stocks
Stocks continued higher this week, printing a high high on Friday, day 25. The new high on day 25 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation, which aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Stocks will continue in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.
Since printing the day 14 half cycle low stocks have accelerated higher. Friday's swing low allows us to construct an accelerated trend line. A swing high with a close below the accelerated trend line would be a signal of a daily cycle decline.
Stocks printed a new weekly high this week. A new high on week 15 shifts the odds towards a right translated weekly cycle formation. With the current daily cycle right translating, stocks will need a 3rd daily cycle to usher in the intermediate cycle decline. Which will make it likely that stocks will test the all time highs before this intermediate cycle tops. Stocks continue to close above the upper weekly cycle band indicating that they are in a weekly uptrend. They will remain in their weekly uptrend unless they close below the lower weekly cycle band.
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