Weekend Report Preview

LikesMoney Independent Analyst

The Dollar

The dollar's daily cycle peaked on July 19, formed a swing high and closed under the 10 day MA then next day setting up a left translated daily cycle formation and signaling the daily cycle decline.

That all changed this week.

The dollar broke to a new daily cycle high on Thursday and then delivered more bullish follow through on Friday. This comes as a surprise to our cycle framework. The dollar is currently in its 5th daily so therefore we were expecting this daily cycle to left translate and fail leading to the intermediate cycle decline. But the tariffs and currency wars has caused the dollar to rally. And this changes some of our framework in the larger degree cycles.

Stocks

Stocks closed below the 10 day MA on Friday to signal that the daily cycle is in decline.

Friday was day 30 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. A break of the daily cycle trend line is needed to confirm that stocks are declining into their daily cycle low. Peaking on day 27 assures us of a right translated daily cycle formation.

However as we have been noting; this daily cycle has been characterized by the many Selling on Strength days. And it is these numerous Selling on Strength days that has me thinking it is possible to still see this daily cycle fail.

There have been over 3.6 billion in SOS days so far during this daily cycle. This type of huge Selling on Strength number is the type associated with an intermediate cycle decline. Therefore we need to be open to the possibility that a break of the daily cycle trend line will lead to an intermediate cycle decline. And what is developing on the weekly chart aligns with this scenario.

Author

LikesMoney

Independent Analyst

Assets (such as stocks, gold, and the dollar) have identifiable cycles.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.