That is, sometime this summer BEFORE early August.
Pricewise, Nasdaq entered our Sell/Distribute/Hedge Zone of 6250-6500;
Timewise, we can see renewed Nasdaq weakness circa June 25+.
SP entered our Sell/Distribute/Hedge Zone of 2440+
DJIA still has more room to run; Timewise August will be challenging.
TRADING NOTE: Summer 2017 Nasdaq is under some unfavorable astrological influences and would be our preferable positional short. Separately, we like or rather dislike TSLA and Bitcoin, but these latter two shorts demand ACTIVE trading - both frequent AND tight entries/exits/stops.
MARKETS ARE OVERVALUED BUT…
While politics will remain a tradeable risk factor, we remain Trump bulls.
FUNDAMENTALLY while we see MARKETS OVERPRICED by 10%+, given future increasing profits for many companies, and the prospect of lower taxes and less regulation, and fresh Public/Private infrastructure initiatives, IT COULD BECOME LESS OVERVALUED AS TIME PASSES.
TECHNICALLY, as long as markets stay above SP 2400, we are inclined to maintain a long bias. Nonetheless, we always advise caution, and believe stock picking will easily well outperform index investing in 2017.
We recommend short term trading and conservative hedging such as writing covered calls and long/short strategies this Summer.
Currently our Long Short Ratio is 3-2 as long as the SP is above 2400; Below SP 2400 and up past SP 2440 1-1; If markets are so inclined to move still higher up circa 2500, then 1-2. Even if not, it is likely Before August 7 to be 1-2 or 2-3!
Over the Summer Wall Street, Next Week will generally be sent biweekly in the absence of any unexpected Black Swan market events.
KEY DATES: JUNE 19, JULY 18, AUGUST 7, 21
DJIA: 21000 SUPPORT 21500 RESISTANCE?
SPX: 2400 PIVOT R1 2440 R2 2480 R3 2500
NASDAQ: 6000 SUPPORT R1 6250 R2 6500 R3 7000
GOLD: 1250 PIVOT 1250 SUPPORT? R1 1265 R2 1280 R3 1300 R4 1325
SILVER: 16.50 SUPPORT 18 RESISTANCE
OIL: 44 PIVOT 44 SUPPORT? ITà$57+
US 10 year 2.10 SUPPORT SELL 2.20 OB à 2.75-3.00 [RESISTANCE]
AUG VIX à14+
The Market Marker includes some cautious concern.
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
2015 CLOSE: DJIA 17425 SPX 2044 & NASDAQ 5007
2014 CLOSE: DJIA 17823 SPX 2058 & NASDAQ 4736
2013 CLOSE: DJIA 16576 SPX 1848 & NASDAQ 4178
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1380
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK+
2. BUSINESS & BANQUETS
At the AFUND June Healthcare and Gold luncheon, we presented two companies: client Cipher Mining Finance (DOX-V) and RespireRx (RSPID), both of whom we recommend researching for possible inclusion for High Risk/Reward portfolio allocation.
At the Marcum MicroCap Conference, we reviewed these companies on our Buy or Watch lists:
Buy List: A-Mark Precious Metals (AMRK), MagneGas (MGNA), Pure BioScience (Pure) ,
Watch List: Great Lake Graphite (TSX-V:GLK, GLKIF), PwrCor (PWCO), The Hotel Communication Network (Private).
3. Has Gold and Silver has peaked for 2017? While traditional seasonal weakness lies ahead, we still prefer to stay positioned on the long side in both Gold and Silver in Q3 2017.
NOTE: June 14 was a key date for Gold. Q3 2017 is likely to be range bound, but technically we have yet to determine the range: $1225-$1350? Regardless:
· Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
· For investors suffering from minuscule interest rates, accumulating gold is a no-brainer!
· Likewise for investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
Gold FV $1380 = Commodity FV: 1325 + Currency FV: 1400 + Inflation Metal FV:1375 + Crisis FV: 1420.
Gold/Silver ratio à 61 FV $22.50
INVESTORS: Intermediate Term, we plan to stay LONG in H2 2017 (recommending a precious metal sector hold rating and only occasional hedging, selling or profit taking). We remain disinclined to short or sell until gold is overvalued e.g. $1400+.
For silver our first selling numbers are $23+.
4. "We don't know when there will be a peak in the market and a tumble but it does look like a tire with a bulge."
Barry James, president, James Advantage Fund
HW: So will the leak be slow or quick? More germane a “correction” i.e. 10% or just 3-5% retracement?
“The rotation is coming out of these highfliers into more defensive areas because if they raise rates for a third time — four rates hikes in nine months — I’m not sure the economy can weather that right now.
Bob Pavlik, chief investment strategist, Boston Private Wealth
HW: With another interest rate hike (we believe by or before March 2018), interest rates will still be ridiculously low. The only negative would be for M&A transactions based on cheap money, rather than true economic synergies.
“The fundamentals of the global supply-demand relationship are favoring higher oil prices.
When it goes up it’s going to go up for an extended period of time. I think it can go back to $90, not in six months but over a couple of years.
Jean-Guy Desjardins, chief executive officer, Fiera Capital
HW: Perhaps, but we DO see $58-60 becoming a floor in 2018, rather than resistance.
5. Wall Street is seeing money pour in at a near record-setting pace
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6. READER: Maybe Trump’s good astro will help protect him from those trying to unseat him, but I’m not convinced it’s related to how the market performs. I started getting short last week, and have been profitable. While I agree with you the bull market has more to go, a long overdue pullback is taking place within it, especially for big tech. Not a buyer here until I see signs the correction is done.
HW: Well Nasdaq will obviously BE down this summer, but I “feel” like almost buying the DJIA as a day/short term trader. Markets often go up and down or down and up BEFORE an FOMC meeting.
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