Market movers today

  • In the US , we get a range of data releases to keep an eye on today in light of the increased uncertainty over the macro outlook, notably industrial production and retail sales for May . In addition, the first estimate of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan for June is due out.

  • In Europe, it is quiet on the data front and markets will stay tuned to the political headlines ahead of next week's EU summit and the ECB's Sintra Forum.

  • In the Scandi markets, today's big event will be the Swedish May inflation figures (see next page).

  • The Bank of Russia (CBR) will announce its decision on the key rate and the central bank governor will hold a press conference. Together with Bloomberg and Reuters consensus, we expect a 25bp cut to 7.50% as the central bank has stated its confidence about decelerating inflation, and external conditions (lack of new anti-Russian sanctions by the US) are not shaking up the RUB .


Selected market news

Stocks in the Asian session traded miscellaneously on Friday morning, while the bond rally intensified on trade war concerns putting the brakes on global economic growth and new geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf region after the tanker incident. The Trump administration accused Iran of the attacks on the tankers while Iranian officials denied they were behind the incident.

US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said on Thursday in Washington that Iran had threatened earlier to restrain oil transport in the Strait of Hormuz. While Pompeo gave no evidence and did not take any questions from reporters, Trump administration officials said that at least one of the ships was attacked by mines. They showed a picture of a tanker with a hole caused by a mine that had exploded and an undetonated mine inside.

The US has sent a guided missile destroyer to the Gulf of Oman to join another US destroyer stationed near a damaged tanker. While the Pentagon stated that Iranian small boats were identified in the area, the US Central Command said "a war with Iran is not in our strategic interest, nor in the best interest of the international community".

Brent soared by almost one US dollar per barrel after Pompeo's statement, but quickly deflated, trading around 61.5 USD/bbl on Friday morning, which means a 3.7% surge from yesterday's lows.

In the UK, Boris Johnson led the race to become the country's next prime minister in a secret ballot of Tory MPs. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt came second, gaining less than half of votes versus those for Johnson. The next round of voting is next Tuesday.

Download The Full Daily FX Market Commentary

This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD below 1.1200 on Draghi's dovishness, amid Trump-Xi meeting announcement

EUR/USD is trading below 1.1200 after ECB President Draghi opened the door to rate cuts. Presidents Trump and Xi will hold an extended meeting at the G-20 Summit. The news cheered markets.


GBP/USD holds on to gains around 1.2550 after Boris wins again

The second ballot for Tories' leadership has been complete. Boris Johnson ended first with 126 votes, followed by Jeremy Hunt, who got 46. Dominic Raab eliminated. Pound showed no reaction to the news.


USD/JPY rallies beyond mid-108.00s on Trump's positive comments

Trump said he will have an extended meeting with the Chinese President next week. This comes on the back of Draghi's dovish comments and triggers risk-on trade. Fading safe-haven demand weighs heavily on the JPY and remained supportive.


Fed Preview: Proto-easing

Fed Funds 2.25%-2.50% target range predicted to be unchanged. Market expecting confirmation of easing bias into the second half. FOMC statement wording, especially "patient" and the economic projections important.

Read more

Gold surges through $1350 level, back closer to 14-month tops

Gold built on its strong intraday positive momentum and spiked to fresh session tops, beyond the $1350 level during the early North-American session.

Gold News