USDTRY slips to 2-week lows; could be oversold

USDTRY is set to close in the red for the second consecutive week, falling sharply on Thursday towards the 6 level, the lowest since August 27. The price has also crossed below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) which the market was unable to break significantly a number of times this year and given the weakness in the MA line, the trend is likely to hold in the short-term.

The RSI sends some neutral to bearish signals as the indicator moves marginally below its 50 neutral mark, though Stochastics suggest that a rebound in the short-term cannot be ruled out as the red %D line and the green %K line are near to post a bullish cross below 20 in oversold area.

If prices indeed bounce up, the 20-day MA currently at 6.31 could offer nearby resistance before a retest at yesterday’s high of 6.53. Then if this fails to hold as well, attention could turn to the 6.82 top reached on August 30.

On the other hand, if the dip in the price continues, immediate support could come at the more-than-a- two-week low of 6.00, while even lower, 5.67 should be in focus given the rebound at this level on August 16. Slightly lower, the 50-day MA at 5.63 could be another barrier which if significantly violated, downside pressures could advance, opening the way towards the August 6’s peak of 5.42.

In the bigger picture, the market continues to hold a bullish outlook despite the downfall from the record high of 7.10 on August 13. Downside risks to the outlook, however, could turn more persistent if the price dives below 5.00.