Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
The USDTRY bounced on Monday after repeated failure to break below the base of rising daily cloud (currently at 3.7530).
Another strong support lies in this zone – Fibo 38.2% of 3.8883/3.9814 rally and reinforces cloud base support.
Today's rally retraced the biggest part of Thu/Fri fall from 3.8056 to 3.7446 and probes above 20SMA (3.7885), sustained break of which would generate bullish signal for stronger recovery. Today's rally retraced the biggest part of Thu/Fri fall from 3.8056 to 3.7446 and probes above 20SMA (3.7885), sustained break of which would generate bullish signal for stronger recovery. Close above next pivots at 3.8065/56 (double upside rejection) and 3.8138 (daily Kijun-sen) is needed to confirm scenario.
Overall structure is bearish and current move seen as correction before broader bears resume.
While recovery stays capped under daily Kijun-sen, increased downside risk could be expected.
Otherwise, stronger correction would sideline immediate bears and open way for recovery extension towards 3.84 zone (sideways-moving 55SMA).
Res: 3.8000; 3.8065; 3.8138; 3.8272
Sup: 3.7885; 3.7684; 3.7530; 3.7457
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
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