USDTRY – near-term action remains bearishly aligned as 20SMA caps

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

USDTRY

The pair stays within larger 3.52/3.65 range in past couple of weeks, signaling possible basing of descend from 11 Jan record high at 3.9414. Short-term price action from correction low at 3.5187, posted on 02 May is holding within ascending channel, which keeps in play an idea of stronger recovery, as the notion is supported by weekly slow stochastic reversal from overbought territory.
However, series of weekly Dojis suggest no clear direction, with contracting 20d Bollinger bands on daily chart supporting for extended directionless trading.
Daily technical studies are bearish overall but weekly bulls remain in play that may trigger fresh weakness of Lira.
Near-term action is capped by 20SMA (currently at 3.5774) for the third day that may keep near-term risk shifted towards supports at 3.5513 and 3.5355, which guard key support at 3.5187.
Dollar's performance in the short term would signal short-term direction, however, stronger signals could be expected on break out of 3.52/3.65 range.

Res: 3.5775; 3.5930; 3.6000; 3.6244
Sup: 3.5575; 3.5513; 3.5355; 3.5187

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD weakens as US jobs data trims Fed rate cut bets

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near 1.1860 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index inflation report.

GBP/USD bullish outlook prevails above 1.3600, UK GDP data looms

The GBP/USD pair gains ground near 1.3635, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Thursday. The preliminary reading of UK Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter will be closely watched later on Thursday. The UK economy is estimated to grow 0.2% QoQ in Q4, versus 0.1% in Q1.

Gold remains on the defensive below two-week top; lacks bearish conviction amid mixed cues

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses through the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains close to a nearly two-week high, touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades above the $5,070 level, down just over 0.20% for the day, amid mixed cues.

UK GDP set to post weak growth as markets rise bets on March rate cut

Markets will be watching closely on Thursday, when the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will release the advance estimate of Q4 Gross Domestic Product. If the data land in line with consensus, the UK economy would have continued to grow at an annualised pace of 1.2%, compared with 1.3% recorded the previous year.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.