USDJPY has been in a battle with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the up leg from 102.60 to 111.65 at 109.50 over the last month, creating a tight sideways channel.
The 20- and 40-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as well as the Ichimoku cloud are acting as significant resistance regions. In terms of technical indicators, the RSI is declining in the negative area, while the stochastic is approaching the oversold zone, suggesting steeper decreases in the market.
If the negative pressures intensify, initial tough support could develop from the 109.10 barrier and the ten-week low of 108.70. Pushing under these levels, the 108.20 support, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci and stands near the tough 200-day SMA, may halt further loss.
If buying interest intensifies, resistance may originate from a trench of peaks from 110.45 to 110.80. Overcoming this boundary, the price may jump for the 16-month high of 111.65 before the 112.20-112.40 zone draw traders’ attention.
In brief, the very short-term bias is neutral near the SMAs and the Ichimoku cloud. A break either above 110.80 or below 108.70 could reveal the next clearer direction.
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