USDCHF: 0.9624
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Range trade 0.9590/0.9685?
US$Chf did its own thing on Monday, in taking out some minor support levels before running into decent support at the 0.9590/00 level and then bouncing, to sit back within the middle of its recent range.
Once again, the short term momentum indicators are mixed/flat and on the downside, good support still lies at 0.9590/ 0.9600 although if this is taken out there is not too much to hold it up until 0.9550, where the 200 WMA has done a good job of propping the dollar up over the last couple of weeks. Below there would be a longer term concern for the dollar and could see a run back to previous, 2016 lows at 0.9520/30, to 0.9500, and potentially a fair bit lower.
On the topside, the dollar peaked at 0.9658 on Monday. Above here could see a return to the 0.9675/85 minor resistance beyond which would revisit Friday’s high of 0.9700. This area should again prove a significant hurdle although if/when taken out, then we could quickly head toward 0.9730 and then to 0.9745 although I don’t see it up here today.
More choppy trade looks likely, generally within the 0.9600/0.9700 range, possibly until the ECB on Thursday. If anything, as with yesterday, I mildly prefer to trade from the short side but not convinced, especially if the SNB are underpinning the dollar.
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9760 | (38.2% of 1.0099/0.9555) | 0.9595 | Session low |
| 0.9730 | Descending trend resistance | 0.9591 | 7 July low |
| 0.9700 | 14 July high | 0.9575 | Minor |
| 0.9785 | Minor | 0.9555/52 | 3 July low/29 June low /200 WMA |
| 0.9665 | Minor | 0.9525 | Minor |
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