USDCHF: 0.9635
Preferred 24-hour Strategy: Neutral
It looked as though the SNB were quietly intervening on Friday, with the Chf notably weak in an otherwise steady market ahead of the US economic figures. US$Chf reached 0.9700, but then quickly reversed following the soft data and headed back towards the lower end of its recent range, but not getting close to testing the 0.9600 support and leaving the outlook pretty much unchanged.
The short term momentum indicators are mixed/flat and, on the downside, good support still lies at 0.9590/ 0.9600 although if this is taken out there is not too much to hold it up until 0.9550, where the 200 WMA has done a good job of propping the dollar up over the last couple of weeks. Below there would be a longer term concern for the dollar and could see a run back to previous, 2016 lows at 0.9520/30, to 0.9500, and potentially a fair bit lower.
On the topside, the dollar did its best on Friday to take out the nearby resistance, although 0.9700 once again proved a significant hurdle that is yet to be overcome. If taken out, then we could quickly head toward 0.9730 and then to 0.9745 although I don’t see it up here today.
More choppy trade looks likely within the 0.9600/0.9700 range, possibly until the ECB on Thursday. If anything I mildly prefer to trade from the short side but not convinced, especially if the SNB are underpinning the dollar.
| 24 Hour Outlook: Neutral | Medium Term: Neutral | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 0.9760 | (38.2% of 1.0099/0.9555) | 0.9628 | Friday low |
| 0.9730 | Descending trend resistance | 0.9615 | 13 July low |
| 0.9700 | Friday high | 0.9601 | 12 July low |
| 0.9785 | Minor | 0.9591 | 7 July low |
| 0.9665 | Minor | 0.9555/52 | 3 July low/29 June low /200 WMA |
All content on this website, www.fxcharts.com.au (FX Charts PL) is a personal view only and offers absolutely no guarantee as to the correctness or otherwise of that opinion. The content here is of a “general nature” only and does not constitute personal or investment advice. The FX Charts website is not an inducement to trade Foreign Exchange (FX). No liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss or damage that may result, directly or indirectly, from any , comment, opinion, information or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, within the FX Charts Website. The information and any opinion or outlook expressed in this commentary may be based on assumptions or market conditions and may be liable change at any time, without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.