USDCAD Forecast: Canadian dollar unchanged ahead of US consumer spending data

The Canadian dollar is unchanged in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2997, down 0.01% on the day. In the U.S, the focus is on consumer spending data. Core retail sales and retail sales are both expected to tick lower, with readings of 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. We’ll also get a look at UoM Consumer Sentiment, which is forecast to climb to 96.7 points.

Investors continue to keep a worried eye on the NAFTA negotiations, nervous over the economic repercussions to the Canadian economy if a trade agreement is not hammered out with the United States. However, a PwC report earlier this week points to a far more troubling event – President Trump’s massive corporate tax cuts. The PwC report estimates that the tax reforms could cost Canada 635,000 jobs (3.4% of the labor market) and reduce Canada’s GDP by up to $85 billion (4.9% of the economy). The damage to the Canadian economy would be felt most keenly in the business sector, as lower corporate taxes in the U.S will reduce the incentive for U.S companies to set up operations north of the border.

In the U.S, the red-hot labor market continues to be the envy of industrialized countries around the globe. The unemployment rate is at a remarkable 3.8% and unemployment claims were almost unchanged at 204 thousand, another excellent reading. Despite the strong employment front and a booming economy, inflation remains well short of the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent. In August, CPI and Core CPI came in at 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, falling short of their estimates.

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USD/CAD Fundamentals

• 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%

• 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%

• 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -0.2%

• 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.3%

• 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.3%

• 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 96.7

• 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.5%

• 10:00 Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations

Open: 1.2999 High: 1.3001 Low: 1.2983 Close: 1.2997

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD showed limited movement in the Asian session and this trend has continued in European trade

• 1.2970 is providing support

• 1.3067 is the next resistance line

• Current range: 1.2970 to 1.3067

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2970, 1.2831 and 1.2666

• Above: 1.3067, 1.3160, 1.3292 and 1.3386