Mthokozisi Mpofu
Knars Capital
The rand has slowly started to lose value across all major currency
crosses. The dollar sell-off has given the rand a shred of life but that
should be short-lived. The economy has been ham stringed by the pandemic
with government efforts to support the poor and ailing economy proving
fruitless. 2020 saw South Africa being downgraded to "junk status" by
Moodys due to the widening budget deficit and several economic factors.
Eskom, Transnet, and South African Airways are some of the major
contributors to the deficit. Rampant corruption at State-Owned
Enterprises (SOE) requires the government to bail out these companies at
the taxpayers' expense. The lockdown spending reduced by 40% y/y
meaning South African Revenue Service (SARS) will collect less tax
limiting government spending.
The chart below shows USD/ZAR in a corrective channel higher we would
need to break 17.66666 to have some bullish bias on this pair. A bearish
set up will come in play with a break of our channel at 16.8942
targeting 15.00000.
The bigger picture on the rand is more weakness in terms of technicals
and fundamentals but we are still a long way from 22 with plenty of room
for more sideways price action.
Res: 17.50000; 18.00000; 18.09000
Sup: 16.50000; 16.32670; 16.00000
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