USD/TRY Outlook: Turkish lira hit new 2019 low on expectations for Istanbul vote rule

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

USDTRY

The USDTRY advanced through psychological 6 barrier on fresh bullish acceleration on Monday and hit new 2019 high at 6.0393 on Monday. Fresh lira's weakness was boosted by political turmoil, as governing AK party requested re-run of Municipal election in Istanbul, where the party was defeated. Strong uncertainty on political instability, as well as measures that government takes in order to stabilize the economy, but delay's key structural reforms, prompted investors from lira into foreign currencies that keeps Turkish currency under increased pressure. Fresh advance of the pair eyes key Fibo barrier at 6.1198 (50% retracement of pullback from new record high at 7.1074 to 5.1323), violation of which is expected to generate strong bullish signal for extension of recovery rally from 5.1323 (29 Nov low). Interim barriers lay at 6.0467 (Fibo 138.2% projection) and round-figure 6.10 level. Bullish studies support scenario, with dips seen as positioning for further advance. Rising 10SMA (5.9364) offers solid support which should keep the downside protected.

Res: 6.0393; 6.0467; 6.1000; 6.1198
Sup: 6.0000; 5.9779; 5.9540; 5.9364

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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