USD/TRY 4H Chart: Falling Wedge
EUR/SEK 1H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: The Euro is in a good position to advance against the Krona. In addition to the bullish outlook implied by the emerging ascending channel, most of the technical indicators are pointing north. Even more importantly, the pair has just rebounded from the lower bound of the bullish channel forming in the daily chart. Our near-term target is thus the August 17 high at 9.5140. If this level is reached, the rate's next objective is likely to be the current August high at 9.60. In the meantime, dips are to be limited by a strong demand area circa 9.48, created by the weekly S1, five-day trendline and the 200-hour SMA. For now the only notable counterargument is SWFX sentiment—72% of positions are long.
USD/TRY 4H Chart: Falling Wedge
Comment: There is a near perfect bullish setup in the four-hour chart of USD/TRY. In addition to the falling wedge, the pair is currently testing a multi-year rising support line. Accordingly, our base scenario is a strong rally from 2.91 and potentially to the July high at 3.10. The first important intermediate resistance in this case will be near 2.97, where the weekly PP merges with the 200-period SMA and the August 11 high. If this supply area is broken, additional strong resistance is expected to be between 3.0330 and 3.0230. Alternatively, in case 2.91 is violated, our focus will shift to supports. A solid demand area is just below 2.88, where the weekly S3 is joined by the monthly S1 and July low.
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Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
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