USD take a breather after weaker than expected US non-farm payrolls, dropping back towards the neckline support after a 4-day winning run. Ethereum, however, continues to rally, hitting new highs at $1764. GBP is the weakest of the day, after rallying across the board on Thursday as the BoE underscored the ongoing turn in central bank policy away from easing. Below is the chart showing USDX moving in tandem with real US yields against XAUUSD

Remember Jobs Data?

Once again, US NFP diverged with largely positive survey jobs data as payrolls rose 49k, 3x less than consensus expectations, while the prev 2 mths were revised down by 159k. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%.

BoE off the Table ...again

With upbeat forecasts and a unanimous vote, the Bank of England signaled that negative rates are othe ff the table. Instead, the focus will now be on how quickly Bailey begins the taper and how long it will be before rates rise.

The QE program was kept at 895B pounds with the current 4.4B/week pace maintained until St Patrick's Day. It's likely to be trimmed by around 1b/week from there, baring any kind of surprise.

The market was caught off-guard by the level of confidence in the central bank despite the latest lockdown measures. Sterling jumped and as the only currency to hold off the ongoing rally in the US dollar (see yesterday's note).

The BOE is another example of central banks signaling (though not explicitly) that the easing cycle is over. The pandemic has been highly uncertain but after the first wave, consumers, businesses and governments have been able to better muddle along. Though some places may see negative GDP in Q1, optimism about the post-vaccine economy is building.

As is tradition, the end of the easing cycle means a quick pivot in markets to a focus on when the hiking cycle will begin. Despite the Fed's insistence that it will let inflation run hot, the market is focused on the US, because growth has held up much better there. Rates are ticking higher and the US dollar gained for seven straight days against the yen.

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD failed to recover above 1.2100

The shared currency remains under selling pressure against its American rival, trading in the 1.2080 area. Market players waiting for more hints in the form of April Retail Sales.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD under pressure below 1.4050 amid renewed USD demand

GBP/USD trades pressured below 1.4050, as the US dollar remains broadly bid amid risk-off sentiment. Rising inflationary pressures and Brexit jitters over NI keep investors on the edge. Bailey's speech, US data in focus.

GBP/USD News

XAU/USD respects the 10-day EMA

Gold could be on the verge of a lower low, but the hourly time frame is key. The hourly support structure is guarding a break to test bullish commitments at 1,800. The 10-day EMA and confluence of the 50% mean reversion are also offering support. Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD could target 200-day SMA

Gold News

Yearn Finance Price Forecast: YFI eyes consolidation after quick surge

Yearn Finance price tagged the channel’s upper trend line yesterday, falling just short of $100,000 and 261.8% Fibonacci extension target at $102,900. The sharp reversal from the trend line marks a significant turning point for YFI that will shift price action to consolidation from the uptrend beginning at the April 25 low. 

Read more

US markets lead the recovery as jobless claims decline

Ongoing inflation fears remain, yet improved jobless claims help lift spirits in the US. Meanwhile, UK reopening stocks have been dealt a blow after SAGE claimed that a rise in the Indian Covid strain could slow the pace of lockdown easing. 

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures