USD/JPY Outlook: bulls may accelerate if no surprise from Fed

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

USD/JPY

The pair maintains positive tone and holding near fresh 6 1/2-week high in early Wednesday's trading, following Tuesday's repeated close above 100DMA and fresh probe above Fibo barrier at 108.16 (76.4% of 109.31/104.44 fall). Daily studies are mixed, as MA's are in bullish setup (the latest formation of 5/100DMA's bull-cross additionally supports bulls) but bullish momentum is fading and stochastic is about to reverse from overbought zone. All eyes are on Fed, with wide expectations for 0.25% rate cut, but the central bank may be less dovish than expected as global tensions are lower and the US economy is in good shape. Traders will focus on Fed Chief Powell's comments after the meeting, for signals whether the central bank is entering easing path or today's rate cut would be isolated case. The greenback may rise if Fed decision comes in line with expectations and without surprise, with USDJPY pair expected to show the biggest reaction that could result in rally towards key barriers at 109.36/37 (Fibo 61.8% of 112.40/104.45 / 200DMA). Conversely, signs that Fed plans further rate cuts in the near-future, would put the greenback under pressure. Broken 100DMA (108.00) offers solid support, followed by rising 10DMA (107.69), but firmer bearish signal could be expected on break below 107.47/46 (Monday's low / Broken Fibo 61.8% of 109.31/104.44) and 55DMA (107.23).

Res: 108.36; 108.42; 108.95; 109.36
Sup: 108.00; 107.69; 107.46; 107.23

Interested in USD/JPY technicals? Check out the key levels

1. R3 108.67
2. R2 108.52
3. R1 108.32
PP 108.17
1. S1 107.97
2. S2 107.82
3. S3 107.62

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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