The continuation of the flattening US yield curve will weigh heavily on the USD in the coming days. Soggy GDP data, increasing virus cases, and the absence of a Senate approval to pass an extension of the emergency jobless will do no favors for the greenback. Furthermore, Fed Powell has confirmed, yet again, they will "do what it takes" to get the economy moving again. Rates increases in the medium to long term are a pipe dream.
When trading trends we like to buy the stronger currencies and sell the weaker. As the chart below shows the USD (green line) is by far the weakest currency. The JPY (brown line) shows a currency gaining momentum confirming the bias to sell this USDJPY. A break of structural support at the 106 handle confirms the path of least resistance is lower. 103 50 is the next meaning full support but we see a push even lower to 102.50 zone. Fading rallies with stops above 106.00.
The information provided in these commentaries is for education purposes only and should not be confused with investment advice. Trading foreign exchange or CFD’s on margin carries a high level of risk and might not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange or CFD’s you should carefully consider your trading objectives, level of experience and risk appetite . The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD could extend the recovery to 0.6500 and above
The enhanced risk appetite and the weakening of the Greenback enabled AUD/USD to build on the promising start to the week and trade closer to the key barrier at 0.6500 the figure ahead of key inflation figures in Australia.
EUR/USD now refocuses on the 200-day SMA
EUR/USD extended its positive momentum and rose above the 1.0700 yardstick, driven by the intense PMI-led retracement in the US Dollar as well as a prevailing risk-friendly environment in the FX universe.
Gold struggles around $2,325 despite broad US Dollar’s weakness
Gold reversed its direction and rose to the $2,320 area, erasing a large portion of its daily losses in the process. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in the red below 4.6% following the weak US PMI data and supports XAU/USD.
Bitcoin price makes run for previous cycle highs as Morgan Stanley pushes BTC ETF exposure
Bitcoin (BTC) price strength continues to grow, three days after the fourth halving. Optimism continues to abound in the market as Bitcoiners envision a reclamation of previous cycle highs.
US versus the Eurozone: Inflation divergence causes monetary desynchronization
Historically there is a very close correlation between changes in US Treasury yields and German Bund yields. This is relevant at the current juncture, considering that the recent hawkish twist in the tone of the Federal Reserve might continue to push US long-term interest rates higher and put upward pressure on bond yields in the Eurozone.