USD/JPY, NZD/USD, GBP/USD [Video]

US CPI – USD/JPY

The spotlight in the previous week was US President Donald Trump’s announcement about tariffs on US trading partners and the significant bearish move on greenback, while the NFP data beat market expectations, adding 228K. This week, traders will shift their focus to the US CPI for March, which is coming up on Thursday. The headline CPI is predicted to fall to 2.5% from its previous level of 2.8%. However, any surprises may show signs for more rate cuts in 2025 from the Federal Reserve.

Trump's tariffs had had a significant adverse affect on USDJPY, pushing the pair down to a new six-month low of 144.55. The bearish structure is now established OR is now confirmed in the short-term view, with the next support levels being at 141.60 and the 14-month low of 139.56. However, an upside correction could send investors toward the 148.15 barrier ahead of the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 148.90 and 149.90 respectively. The technical oscillators currently endorse the bearish scenario.

RBNZ interest rate decision – RBNZ

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to announce a 25bps rate cut this week, taking the interest rate down to 3.5%, with the expectation of an additional OR another two-and-a-half cuts before the year-end. This meeting will take place without a governor as Adrian Orr exited from his duties a month ago. However, inflation has remained steady around 2.2% over the last six months.

NZDUSD, on Friday, had one of its worst days in 2025 so far, losing more than 4% and sending the market down to 0.5518. The pair penetrated the short-term uptrend line, and any movement below the October 2022 low at 0.5510 could send traders to a new trough until 0.5470, registered in March 2020. On the other hand, a rebound off 0.5540 may take the price above the 0.5580 resistance, challenging the ascending trend line at 0.5630. Even higher, the outlook may be brighter if there is a challenge of the 0.5710 barrier. The momentum oscillators currently suggest more declines in the market.   

UK GDP – GBP/USD

The UK is set to release its monthly GDP estimate for February on Friday. Recent economic indicators have painted a mixed picture of the UK's economic health. While the GDP for Q4 2024 showed moderate expansion, January's monthly GDP reading indicated negative growth.

Inflation remains a key concern, as it has slowed somewhat but remains elevated. This has influenced the Bank of England's cautious approach to interest rate cuts. Despite elevated inflation figures, market participants are still assigning a high probability (90%)of a 25 basis points reduction at the next Bank of England meeting on May 8.

A strong GDP reading for February could potentially alter these expectations, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut and providing support for the pound. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data could reinforce the case for a rate reduction.

GBPUSD had a strong dive on Friday, fluctuating from 1.3100 to 1.2870, and earlier today it hit the 200-day SMA at 1.2820 and the short-term rising trend line. Any movements below these lines could open the way for further reductions, meeting the 50-day SMA at 1.2760 and the 1.2730 barrier. On the flip side, an advance above the immediate resistance of 1.2870 could take traders up to 1.3100 again. The MACD and the stochastic oscillators are indicating a bearish bias.