USD/JPY Forecast: Retreating from critical resistance

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

USD/JPY Current Price: 109.50

Softer-than-expected US employment report helped the yen recover some ground.
Japan data mixed, continues to indicate moderated economic growth.
USD/JPY easing, but bearish potential limited, according to intraday technical readings.

The dollar rallied against the JPY throughout the week but was unable to take the 109.70 price zone, where sellers have been aligned since last December, ending Friday little changed around 109.50. The USD/JPY pair traded as high as 109.68, as risk-appetite weighed on the safe-haven yen. Japanese data released at the beginning of the day came in mixed, at November Overall Household Spending, which declined by 2.0%, well below the 2.5% advance expected. The preliminary estimate for the Leading Economic Index for the same month, beat expectations by printing at 90.9, while the Coincident Index came in at 95.1, also above the market’s forecast.

The rally stalled after a softer-than-anticipated US employment report, which led to some losses in Wall Street, and also to a retracement in US government debt yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note finished the week at 1.82 after peaking mid-week at 1.87%. Japan will kick-start the week with a holiday, which means there won’t be macroeconomic releases.

USD/JPY short-term technical outlook

The USD/JPY pair’s bullish stance persists, although it’s losing momentum. In the daily chart, the pair is still above all of its moving averages, while the Momentum indicator is barely entering positive levels and the RSI turning lower, currently at around 57. In the shorter term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the bearish potential is limited, as technical indicators are easing from extreme overbought levels, while the pair develops above all of its moving averages. A firmly bullish 20 SMA is crossing above the larger ones. The pair could turn bearish once below 108.90 a critical Fibonacci support level.

Support levels: 109.25 108.90 108.50

Resistance levels: 109.70 110.00 110.40

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD pulls back from monthly high but holds above 0.7000

AUD/USD retreats from the monthly high set earlier this Thursday, sliding back to 0.7000 during the Asian session as a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East undermines the risk-sensitive Aussie. However, recent hawkish comments from RBA officials could support the Australian Dollar. Furthermore, the prevailing US Dollar selling bias, despite Fed hike bets and geopolitical uncertainties, could limit losses for the pair.

USD/JPY declines to a one-week low; eyes trading range support near 157.50 on weaker USD

USD/JPY drops to a one-week low during Thursday’s Asian session, with bears now awaiting a break below multi-week range support near mid-157.00s before placing fresh bets amid a broadly weaker US Dollar. Despite bets for a December Fed rate hike and Middle East jitters, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps USD depressed near a three-week low. Moreover, hawkish BoJ expectations and intervention risks underpin the Japanese Yen, further weighing on the currency pair.

Gold bounces off monthly low as USD selling remains unabated amid falling bond yields

Gold pares heavy intraday losses to the monthly trough, though it retains an intraday bearish tone below $4,100 during Thursday’s early European session. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated as Federal Reserve officials recently signaled there is no urgency to raise interest rates at the upcoming October 27–28 meeting. Furthermore, US bond yields extend their retracement slide from multi-year highs, keeping USD bulls on the back foot and offering some support to the precious metal.

Dogecoin stays weak despite whales and new deal

Dogecoin price remains under pressure, trading below $0.081 despite a modest rebound earlier this week. Santiment data shows signs of accumulation, and Wednesday’s announcement of a Dogecoin Labs partnership with the Dogecoin Foundation adds a mildly bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, mixed derivatives metrics and weakening momentum indicators continue to limit the meme coin recovery.

3 Gold forecasts at $4,100: A bullish Arc rejection, a bearish Fed setup and a festival tiebreaker

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,100, and the three latest analyses cannot agree on what the level means: one sees the bounce from support as confirmation of a potential push toward $4,227, another argues every rally is vulnerable while price sits under its 20-day EMA, and the third points to India's Diwali buying season as the physical test about to meet the market.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.