USD/CHF: Short lived rally meets stiff resistance at 0.8300

The USD/CHF bounce that followed the tariff headlines on Wednesday appears to have already run its course. Thursday’s relief bid had lifted USD/CHF to 0.8348, but the move stalled exactly at the 20-day exponential average and just below the 50-day MA line These levels have capped every recovery wave since late April. A swift move back through 0.8300 leaves the broader down-trend intact.

Fundamentals

• Tariff uncertainty resurfaces: A federal appeals court has only paused the lower court’s injunction; the White House vows to re-impose duties “another way.” This lack of clarity keeps risk demand fragile and underpins safe-haven demand with CHF a beneficiary.
• Softer US data: the second estimate of Q1 GDP surprised with a –0.2 % contraction and jobless claims also ticked higher. This has reinforced expectations for two Fed cuts in H2 2025. Attention is now on today’s core PCE data.
• SNB rhetoric priced in: Chair Schlegel’s warning that “negative inflation is possible” has pushed rate-cut odds for 19 June to 75 %, but the market had already been leaning dovish. Unless the SNB signals imminent FX intervention, CHF remains a preferred haven.

Technical picture

The price action of the past six weeks resembles a bear flag whose upper boundary sits between 0.8320 – 0.8350. Thursday’s rejection there keeps the sequence of lower highs intact, while daily RSI remains below 50, consistent with bearish momentum. A close beneath 0.8250 would confirm flag failure and reopen April’s floor at 0.8186; below it lies the 0.8100/0.8040 double-bottom.

A hotter-than-expected core PCE could trigger a brief dollar squeeze, but the technical and macro hurdles are clustered around 0.8350 – 0.8400 which should limit any upside. Conversely, a soft inflation print would likely accelerate CHF gains and validate the bearish flag target near 0.81.