USD/CAD price outlook: US Dollar/Canadian Dollar rejects failed arc breakout

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): Arc cycle analysis

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar briefly moved beyond the 0.618 Arc before returning within the Previous Arc boundary. The failed breakout suggests that the original Arc structure remains valid, favoring a reversal toward the opposite Arc.

Metric	Reading
Market Bias	Bullish Reversal
Preferred Scenario	Potential Reversal / Return Toward the Opposite Arc
Primary Target Zone	1.3934
Scenario Invalidation	Sustained close beyond 1.3844
Current Arc Level	Reclaimed Arc (0.618)
Cycle Status	Returning to the Previous Arc Cycle
Arc Integrity	Reclaimed

Market outlook

Price has returned within the 0.618 Arc after a failed breakout, indicating that the original Arc structure remains intact. If price continues to hold within the reclaimed Arc boundary, the preferred scenario is a reversal toward 1.3934 price.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

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