US weekly jobless claims and ISM services preview

Stuart Cowell HFM

EUR/USD, H1

US jobless claims preview: initial claims are projected to drop -18,000 to 770,000 for the week of November 28 after the 30,000 rise to 778,000 in the prior week. However, there is risk for a smaller decline or another increase given the second wave of virus that’s again eroding employment conditions. Continuing claims are seen dropping 250,000 to 5.821 million for the November 21 week after plunging 299,000 to 6.071 million previously. Assumptions are for a consensus 500,000 November payroll rise, after gains of 638,000 in October, 672,000 in September, and 1.494 million in August. The trend continues to wane.

US ISM services preview: Expectations are for a small downtick to 56.5 after falling 1.2 points to 56.6 in October. The index was at 53.9 last November. The 58.1 in July was a 17-month high and the 41.8 in April was an 11-year low. There’s been a modest pullback in producer sentiment measures in recent months, especially with headwinds from the spike in virus cases and tightening in restrictions. Nevertheless, the indexes still remain at relatively elevated levels as output continues to rise in the face of plunging inventories and rising sales.

In European early trades today the USDIndex has sunk under 91.00 for a 32-month low, negative headlines from Barnier had weighed on the Pound yesterday and Cable sank below 1.3300 at one point, overnight it has managed to claw back to touch 1.3400 again. Meanwhile EURUSD is also still trading at elevated levels – at 1.2135, with ECB officials failing to step in so far.

Author

Stuart Cowell

HFM

With over 25 years experience working for a host of globally recognized organisations in the City of London, Stuart Cowell is a passionate advocate of keeping things simple, doing what is probable and understanding how the news, c

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