US September ISM Services PMI Preview: Eyes on inflation and employment details

ISM's headline Services PMI is expected to retreat to 60 in September.
Prices Paid Index component is likely to show that input prices continued to increase.
EUR/USD could extend rebound with a daily close above 1.1650.

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

The Institue for Supply Management is expected to report an expansion in the US service sector's economic activity for the 16th month in a row in September with the Services PMI posting 60, following August's print of 61.7. Nevertheless, investors are likely to pay more attention to the underlying details of the report.

The Prices Paid Index component, which declined to 75.4 in August from 82.3 in July, is forecast to rise to 79.3. In the previous survey, all 18 sub-sectors of the services industry reported an increase in input prices. In its flash Services PMI report for September, "cost pressures remained historically elevated, as greater supplier prices and increased wage bills following incentives to entice workers pushed costs up," the IHS Markit noted and added that firms continued to pass higher prices to clients. In case the ISM's publication paints a similar picture, the greenback should be able to preserve its strength against its major rivals.

Meanwhile, the Employment Index component is seen staying unchanged at 53.7 to show an ongoing increase in the service sector employment at a modest pace. A stronger-than-expected print could allow investors to start pricing in a sharp rebound in Nonfarm Payrolls data and help the USD outperform its rivals. On the other hand, a reading below 50 is likely to limit the USD's upside.

To summarize, market participants could ignore the headline September ISM Services PMI, unless there is a large divergence from the market consensus, and focus on inflation and employment components. If the report reveals that inflation in the service sector is strengthening alongside an expansion in employment, the US Dollar Index could regain its traction and look to renew the 13-month high it set last week. On the flip side, the USD selloff could pick up steam especially if a contraction in the service sector employment causes investors to reassess Friday's jobs report and the Fed's asset tapering plan.

EUR/USD technical outlook

Following the five-day decline that dragged it to its lowest level in more than a year 1.1563, the EUR/USD pair managed to stage a rebound and broke above 1.1600 on Monday. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart stays below 50, suggesting that the current advance is a technical correction.

In case the pair makes a daily close above 1.1650 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the September downtrend) and the RSI climbs beyond 50, it could target 1.1700 (psychological level/Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.1775 (50-day SMA).

On the downside, the initial support is located at 1.1600 (psychological level) before 1.1563 (September 30 low) and 1.1500 (psychological level).

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols reportedly spent $638 million to buy back their native tokens in August, up 17% from a year earlier. On the surface, the buyback trend suggests the cryptocurrency industry is maturing fast, adopting one of Wall Street’s oldest tools to bolster valuations and distribute revenue. The headline becomes less impressive once the number is opened up.

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.