U.S. retail sales expected to rise

The U.S. Dollar index managed to post recovery as price action turned slightly bullish on Friday. However, the price was contained within Thursday's range.

The German final inflation report showed an unchanged print as consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month. The Eurozone's industrial production numbers rose 1.0%, beating estimates of a 0.4% increase.

Data on Friday showed a mixed picture for the U.S. Import prices in the United States jumped 0.5% in September. Export prices remained unchanged. On a year over year basis, both import and export prices remained broadly unchanged.

Consumer confidence fell slightly in October, data from the University of Michigan showed on Friday. The British pound gapped lower on Monday. The decline came amid news from EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier's comments that despite negotiations, some key issues remained. The euro was also seen gapping lower at today's open.

Economic data for the day ahead is expected to remain mostly quiet during the European trading session. The NY trading session will see the release of the retail sales report.

Headline retail sales are expected to rise 0.6% on the month, while core retail sales are forecast to increase by 0.4%. The Empire State Manufacturing Index data later follow this. Economists expect activity to rise to 20.4 on the index.

 

EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1543): The EURUSD currency pair was seen easing back, giving up some of the gains on Friday. Price action looks comfortably settled above the recently breached resistance level of 1.1540. If support is established here, we expect the gains to push the EURUSD currency pair higher in the near term. The next main resistance level is seen at 1.1718. However, this can be achieved if the euro can post a strong reversal and break past the previous highs established at 1.1607.

 

GBPUSD intraday analysis

GBPUSD (1.3105): The GBPUSD extended gains strongly off the support at 1.3054 to test the resistance level at 1.3250. As previously noted, the rebound off the resistance level pushed the GBPUSD lower on the day on Friday. The immediate support is seen at 1.3132 which failed to hold the declines. We now expect the cable to fall back to the previous support level at 1.3054 - 1.3028.

 

XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1222.02): Gold prices look to have finally broken out from the flat price action last week. After breaching the resistance level at 1212.05, gold prices seem settled to post further gains. Watch for a potential bullish flag pattern being formed. This could potentially indicate further strong gains to come. To the downside, gold prices are at risk of posting a more substantial correction. This could push the price of the precious metal down to the support at 1212.05.