Today’s impressive PMI figures from ISM should support calls for a ‘soft landing’ and another period of economic exceptionalism in the US economy in 2025.
There remains no signs whatsoever of recession in the data and instead of slowing down, business activity actually accelerated at the end of last year, with growth looking on course to print at around 3% annualised once again in the fourth quarter.
We see another year of US economic outperformance ahead in 2025, particularly should president-elect Trump double down on his tariff proposals. The dollar has rallied on today’s news, and US Treasury yields have leapt towards 4.7% - the highest level since May.
There remains reason for caution, however, with ongoing inflation concerns and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which looks likely to cut rates at a snail’s pace, set to keep a lid on domestic activity.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds lower ground below 0.6300 despite renewed China optimism
AUD/USD stays depressed below the 0.6300 mark in the Asian session on Thursday amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans. The Aussie shrugs off a risk-rally in Chinese stocks on fresh support measures as the US Dollar holds ground ahead of top-tier US data releases.
USD/JPY bounces to near 155.50 amid modest US Dollar uptick
USD/JPY finds fresh buyers and bounces to near 155.50 in the Asian session on Thursday. The pair reverses an early dip-=led by the better-than-expected Japanese Trade Balance data. Further upside could be capped amid prospects for an imminent BoJ rate hike on Friday.
Gold buyers pause but refuse to give up yet
Gold price consolidates its three-day bullish momentum early Thursday, having reached three-month highs of $2,763 on Wednesday. Gold buyers take a breather as attention turns toward US fundamentals, with the weekly Jobless Claims on tap.
Crypto Today: BTC, Solana, XRP mount $3.5T support as Ross Ulbricht and Tornado Cash rulings spark optimism
The global crypto market capitalization fell 1.7% to hit $3.5 trillion on Wednesday. Bitcoin, Solana and XRP held firm above their respective critical support levels at $103,000, $3 and $250.
Netflix posts record quarter, as Trump talks tariffs on China
There has been a positive tone to risk this week, as the market digests Trump 2.0. However, Trump is not the only show in town. Earnings reports are also a key driver of stock indices, and the news is good.
Trusted Broker Reviews for Smarter Trading
VERIFIED Discover in-depth reviews of reliable brokers. Compare features like spreads, leverage, and platforms. Find the perfect fit for your trading style, from CFDs to Forex pairs like EUR/USD and Gold.