US Oil – loss of 200SMA weakens the structure after recovery stall under $50 breakpoint

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

US CRUDE OIL

Oil started the week in red and broke below strong support at $48.68 (200SMA) which held weakness on Thu/Fri after recovery stalled under ke$50 barrier.
Today's fresh weakness cracked psychological $48.00 support (also near Fibo 61.8% of $47.08/$49.61 recovery leg), signaling that correction might be over.
Daily close below $48.05 Fibo support would generate another bearish signal and risk return to $47.08 (14 Mar spike low/the lowest since 30 Nov).
Overall structure remains bearish and $47.08/$49.61 bull-leg that was capped under thick daily cloud, is seen as correction ahead of fresh extension of larger downmove from $55.01 (21 Feb high) for renewed test of $47.17 pivot (Fibo 61.8% of larger $42.19/$55.22 rally).
Broken 200SMA now acts as strong resistance which is expected to ideally cap.
However, daily RSI is entering negative territory and may delay bears, but no bullish signal seen for now.

Res: 48.67; 49.23; 49.61; 50.00
Sup: 47.95; 47.68; 47.17; 47.08

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD: US Dollar comeback in the makes?

The US Dollar stands victorious at the end of another week, with the EUR/USD pair trading near a four-week low of 1.1742, while the USD retains its strength despite some discouraging American data released at the end of the week. The pair edged higher on Friday, after the United States Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump's tariffs, although the advance is not enough to change the latest USD flow.

GBP/USD braces for more pain, as 200-day SMA tested

GBP/USD broke the previous week’s consolidation to the downside, as sellers returned with pomp, smashing the major back toward the levels last seen in late January. The pair tested bids below the 1.3450 barrier as the US Dollar strength largely played out throughout the week, while the Pound Sterling stepped back on expectations of divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve.

Gold rises to near $5,100 as Trump’s tariffs boost haven demand, US-Iran talks eyed

Gold price edges higher to near $5,095 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal extends the rally amid US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and uncertainty, boosting safe-haven flows.

Week ahead: Markets brace for heightened volatility as event risk dominates

Dollar strength dominates markets as risk appetite remains subdued. A Supreme Court ruling, geopolitics and Fed developments are in focus. Pivotal Nvidia earnings on Wednesday as investors question tech sector weakness. Yen and aussie diverge; both pound and euro could recoup their losses.

Broadening drivers of growth: Unpacking GDP and looking ahead

This week’s data delivered a familiar theme with an important twist. The U.S. economy continues to be shaped by powerful forces in high-tech and AI-related investment, but recent releases suggest the growth story may finally be broadening. At the same time, trade flows are moving in a less supportive direction, reminding us that not all parts of the economy are pulling in sync.

Ripple bulls defend key support amid waning retail demand and ETF inflows

XRP ticks up above $1.40 support, but waning retail demand suggests caution. XRP attracts $4 million in spot ETF inflows on Thursday, signaling renewed institutional investor interest.