US initial jobless claims rise less than expected last week

Fundamental Analysis

GBP

“Should we be concerned? No, the dip is probably temporary.”

— Kallum Pickering, Berenberg

The British economy expanded at a weaker-than-initially-expected pace in the three-month period to March, official figures revealed on Thursday. The Office for National Statistics reported that the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted quarterly pace of 0.2% in the first quarter, the slowest pace of growth since the beginning of 2016, compared to an originally reported 0.3% expansion pace. Meanwhile, market analysts expected the March quarter’s pace to remain unchanged. A fall in the services sector contributed the most to the following slowdown, with retail and accommodation posting the largest drops amid the post-Brexit vote sharp fall in the value of the British Pound. Furthermore, household consumption rose just 0.3% quarter-over-quarter in the Q1, the weakest since the Q4 of 2014, as inflationary pressures boosted import prices. Household consumption account for about 70% of Britain’s GDP growth. The final GDP estimate for the Q1 will be released next month. Thus, the reading could be revised higher or lower. However, it was the first time in four years that the second estimate was revised down.

USD

“If the widening in the trade gap reported thus far in the quarter is sustained, trade would subtract about half a percentage point from second-quarter GDP growth.”

— John Ryding, RDQ Economics

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week, official data showed on Thursday. The Labour Department reported that initial jobless claims rose 1K to 234% in the week ended May 19, following the preceding week’s upwardly revised 233K. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated an increase of 5K to 238K during the reported week. That marked the 116th of claims remaining below the 300K level, the longest stretch since 1973. The four-week moving average of claims, considered to be a better measure of the labour market trends, dropped 5.75K to 235.25K last week, the lowest since April 1973. Thursday’s report also showed that continuing jobless claims advanced 24K to 1.92M in the week ending May 13, whereas their four-week moving average declined 16K to 1.93M, the lowest since January 1974. The combination of strong data on the labour market, retail sales and industrial output suggested that the US economy regained positive momentum in the second quarter. Despite the stronger-than-expected release, the US Dollar edged lower against other major currencies.

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