Last week,US Initial Claims were 3,283,000 vs an expectation of 1,500,000. It was the largest initial claims weekly filing in US history and something I’d imagine no one ever thought they would see in their lifetime.  Later today, at 8:30am ET, the US will release Initial Claims for the Week ending March 28th. The expectation is for 3,500,000, with continuing claims expected to be 4,882,000!  If the figure comes in close to expectations, that would be a 2-week total of almost 6,800,000 filing for unemployment claims in the last 2 weeks!  As the country continues to shut down, state by state, these numbers are likely to continue at this rate for the next month.   President Trump said the earliest the US would “reopen” would be April 30th.

Yesterday, ADP released their Nonfarm Employment Change for March.  The figure was -27,000 vs an expectation of -150,000.  Tomorrow, the US releases Nonfarm Payroll data.  Expectations are for a change of -100,000 jobs.  The unemployment rate is expected to uptick from 3.5% to 3.8%.  The unemployment data overall is likely to get worse before it gets better.  However, as initial claims is the most up to date data released, it will also be the number most focused on.

All of this comes as President Trump recently said that the US expects 100,000 to 240,000 deaths from the coronavirus.  He stated yesterday that “we are going to have a couple weeks that will be horrific in coronavirus task force daily press briefings.”

Last Thursday, the day of the initial claims data release, the DXY sold off 1.5% from 100.26 to 99.46.  It has since been consolidating between 98.27 and just below horizontal resistance at 99.91.  This is also the area between the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels from the March 9th low to the March 20th highs.  If the initial claims data is weak, and the DXY sells off like it did last week, price could be down near 97.00 by the end of the day.  The targeted move out of the pennant formation is near 95, or almost a 100% retracement back to the March 9th lows.  If the initial claims data is better, price could break out to the upside and trade near horizontal resistance at 101.


Source:  Tradingview,


However regardless of the actual figure released, it will still be bad.  And as the President has recently expressed, things are likely to remain dire for at least the next few weeks. 

Stay safe!

Risk Warning Notice Foreign Exchange and CFD trading are high risk and not suitable for everyone. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite before making a decision to trade with us. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any off-exchange transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of the markets that you are trading. Margin and leverage To open a leveraged CFD or forex trade you will need to deposit money with us as margin. Margin is typically a relatively small proportion of the overall contract value. For example a contract trading on leverage of 100:1 will require margin of just 1% of the contract value. This means that a small price movement in the underlying will result in large movement in the value of your trade – this can work in your favour, or result in substantial losses. Your may lose your initial deposit and be required to deposit additional margin in order to maintain your position. If you fail to meet any margin requirement your position will be liquidated and you will be responsible for any resulting losses.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD at its highest since January ahead of RBA’s decision

The Australian dollar soared against a weakened greenback, trading around 0.6800 a level that was last seen in January. RBA seen holding rates unchanged and maintaining its optimistic stance.


EUR/USD trades around 1.1130 amid broad dollar’s weakness

EUR/USD holds on to modest daily gains as speculative interest dumped the greenback on the back of dismal US data and civil unrest in the US.


Top 3 Price Prediction Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple: Pointing beyond the Moon

XRP remains on the sidelines, although it could join the bullish run. The crypto market is starting to remind us of times gone by, with dazzling rises across the crypto board that draw the public's attention.

Read more

Gold struggles to hold above $1,740, looks to post modest daily gains

The XAU/USD pair started the week with a bullish gap and rose above $1,740 during the Asian trading hours before losing its traction. After dropping toward $1,730, however, the pair capitalized on the broad-based USD weakness during the American trading hours and now looks to close in the positive territory. 

Gold News

WTI trading near session’s lows around $34.80 a barrel

Crude oil is trading near session’s lows as WTI is trading above the main SMAs on the four-hour chart. However, as the black gold remains fragile in a dominant downtrend, it remains to be seen if WTI can regain the 36.00 resistance. 

Oil News

Forex Majors