Market movers today
-
Germany is due to release factory orders for October this morning. In line with strong surveys, German order growth has been strong in recent months and showed the highest growth rate in six years in September of 9.5% y/y.
-
The ECB's Yves Mersch is due to speak in Frankfurt (11:30 CET ) on the theme ‘Challenges for Monet ary Policy in 2018', and will be the last ECB speaker before the silent period ahead of the December meeting.
-
This afternoon, the US ADP employment report for November is due. It is not a good predictor of the monthly non-farm payrolls but nevertheless tends to get some attention as a warm-up for Friday 'spay rolls (see also US Labour Market Monitor: Expect strong November report). The October ADP employment increase was quite robust at +235k.
-
The Bank of Canada is due to announce its rate decision at 16:00 CET. We and consensus expect rates to be unchanged at 1.0%. The Bank of Canada raised rates in July and September by 25bp at each meet ing.
-
This afternoon, the DOE is due to release US crude oil inventories.
Selected market news
Asian stock markets slipped this morning, dragged by earlier losses on Wall Street as the technology sector stuttered yet again after a brief rebound, while the US dollar slumped on lower long-term US yields. The spread between five-year and 30-year US yields fell below 60bp, which is the lowest since November 2007. Industrial metals also plunged overnight on the prospect of slower Chinese demand, dollar gains and a rise in stockpiles. S&P 500 futures are slightly higher this morning, shrugging off reports that Republican efforts to avoid a government shutdown have stalled.
US President Donald Trump is expected to make an announcement today about moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, thereby implicitly recognising it as the capital of Israel and upending decades of US foreign policy. Such a move has been strongly criticised by Arab leaders and risks fuelling renewed violence and conflict in the Middle East .
In Norway, the November Regional Network Survey, which is Norges Bank's preferred gauge of economic activity, indicated improved growth prospects in all sectors besides construction, with capacity utilisation at the highest level since 2013.
This morning we published Danske Bank 2018 Fixed Income and FX Top Trades . In the fixed income sphere, we recommend positioning for further performance for carry strategies, small moves in out right yields, performance for Danish and Swedish fixed income, periphery performance, tighter USD liquidity in the CCS market and a further flat tening of the US yield curve . In it , we focus on five themes: (1). cyclical support for carry – but volatility is low, (2) policy normalisation, (3) a ‘new' Fed, (4) Scandi housing fragility and (5) currency vulnerability as the foundation of our trades.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to gains above 1.0750 after US data
EUR/USD manages to hold in positive territory above 1.0750 despite retreating from the fresh multi-week high it set above 1.0800 earlier in the day. The US Dollar struggles to find demand following the weaker-than-expected NFP data.
GBP/USD declines below 1.2550 following NFP-inspired upsurge
GBP/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades below 1.2550 in the American session. Earlier in the day, the disappointing April jobs report from the US triggered a USD selloff and allowed the pair to reach multi-week highs above 1.2600.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,300 despite falling US yields
Gold stays on the back foot below $2,300 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory below 4.6% after weak US data but the improving risk mood doesn't allow XAU/USD to gain traction.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Should you buy BTC here? Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price shows signs of a potential reversal but lacks confirmation, which has divided the investor community into two – those who are buying the dips and those who are expecting a further correction.
Week ahead – BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.