Chinese investments in CEE

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Today, at 10 AM CET Poland will publish retail sales growth.
In Slovenia real wage growth will be releases at 10.30 AM CET.

Economic developments

Today we look at the flows of Chinese investments into the region (the American Enterprise Institute - China global investment tracker between 2009 and 2025 for the CEE region). It is quite obvious that Hungary and Serbia lead in attracting Chinese investments. Transport (including infrastructure) and energy dominate sectoral flows. Other sectors play a smaller role. Investments are highly concentrated in a few CEE countries. In other countries, imports compensate everywhere with fewer investments. Further, as par as imports from China are concerned, Slovenia’s imports surged post-2020, far outpacing peers (14% of GDP in 2024 makes Slovenia an outlier). The imports’ growth driven by chemicals and pharma-related goods from China. Such a trend signals strategic vulnerability to Chinese supply chains.

Market movements

The Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty begin a week at a stronger note. Over the last week, the Czech koruna and the Hungarian forint have weakened against the euro, while the Polish zloty strengthened more visibly. In the case of Hungary, the EURHUF moved slightly above 390 in reaction to the change of the central bank’s communique. However, Vice Governorr Kurali said the central bank will not rush with interest rate cuts. Long term yields remain lower. The Czech central bank communicated that it will look past lower inflation next year that will be driven by lower energy bills. Polish central bank warned about the exposure of the Polish banks to Treasury papers as share of Treasury bonds in balance sheets of the banks is high and rising.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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