US Dollar Index outlook: Dollar falls further on rising bets for Fed rate cut

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

Dollar Index

The dollar index falls to five-week low on Thursday, remaining under increased pressure from growing expectations for June rate cuts.

Fed Chair Powell added to expectations by relatively dovish remarks in his testimony on Wednesday, saying that rate cuts will likely be appropriate later this year if economy evolves broadly as expected.

Markets shift focus on Friday’s release of US labor report, with weaker than expected February numbers to further sour the sentiment and increase pressure on greenback.

Fresh extension lower on Thursday broke through pivotal Fibo support at 103..11 (38.2% of 100.29/104.85 rally, reinforced by 55DMA) which contained Wednesday’s drop, with close below this level to generate fresh bearish signal and open way for extension towards supports at 102.57 and 102.04 (Fibo 50% and 61.8% respectively).

Technical studies on daily chart turn to full bearish setup, adding to negative outlook.

Oversold conditions, on the other hand, warn of price adjustment, with broken 200DMA (103.51) offering solid resistance and expected to cap upticks and keep bears in play for fresh push lower.

Res: 103.30; 103.51; 103.68; 103.91.
Sup: 102.71; 102.57; 102.04; 101.74.

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD treads water near 1.1800 ahead of ECB rate decision

EUR/USD is keeping its range at around 1.1800 in the European trading hours on Thursday. The pair awaits the European Central Bank interest rate decision for fresh impetus after the Eurozone inflation declined well below the central bank's 2% target.

GBP/USD stays weak toward 1.3600 on BoE's 'Super Thursday'

GBP/USD holds its losses for the second successive session, directed toward 1.3600 in European trading on Thursday. The pair weakens as the Pound Sterling comes under pressure ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision due later in the day.

Gold recovers major part of intraday losses to sub-$4,800 levels; down a little on firmer USD

Gold rebounds swiftly following the Asian session fall to sub-$4,800 levels and climbs back above the $4,900 mark in the last hour, though the upside potential seems limited. Wednesday's softer US ADP report pointed to labor market weakness and strengthened the case for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, lending support to the non-yielding yellow metal.

BTC steadies as bears shift focus toward $70,000

Bitcoin price remains under pressure so far this week, with the Crypto King slipping below $73,000 on Tuesday for the first time since November 2024. The price dip in BTC was fueled as the news came in late Tuesday that the US military shot down an Iranian drone that “aggressively” approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea.

BoE expected to keep interest rate steady amid sticky inflation, cooling job market

The Bank of England (BoE) will deliver its first monetary policy decision of 2026 on Thursday. Most analysts think the ‘Old Lady’ will sit tight, keeping the base rate at 3.75% after the cut delivered back on December 18. Alongside the decision, the bank will also release the Minutes, which should shed a bit more light on how policymakers weighed the arguments around the table.

Top Crypto Losers: Zcash, Stacks, BNB drop further as Bitcoin weakens

Zcash, Stacks, and BNB (formerly Binance Coin) are among the biggest losers over the last 24 hours as Bitcoin approaches $72,000. The correction is driven by multiple factors, including massive, steady outflows from institutions and large-wallet investors, broader-market risk-off sentiment, and the delay in the Digital Asset Clarity Act.