US Department of Labour

Fundamental Analysis

GBP

“Retailers continue to be squeezed by rising cost pressures on the one hand, and intense competition on the other, which will limit their ability to raise prices.”

- Anna Leach, CBI

UK retail sales posted the largest drop in almost seven years in the three-month period to February amid higher fuel prices that put pressure on household budgets. Nevertheless, the Office for National Statistics reported on Thursday that British retail sales advanced 1.4% last month, following the preceding month’s fall of 0.5% and surpassing analysts’ expectations for a 0.4% rise. Despite a stronger-than-expected rebound, in the three months to February sales dropped 1.4%, compared to a 0.5% decline seen in the three-month period to January. That marked the biggest fall since March 2010. On an annual basis, sales were up 3.7%, whereas analysts anticipated a 2.6% increase after a 1.0% gain registered in January. Earlier this week, the ONS reported consumer prices jumped 2.3%, the highest in more than three years, while inflation used for calculation retail sales growth advanced 2.8%, the highest since March 2012. The ONS also noted that higher inflation, mainly driven by the weak Pound, started hurting consumers’ pockets. Consumer spending is closely followed by the Bank of England, as it accounts for nearly two-thirds of UK output. On Thursday, one of the largest apparel retailers in Britain Next said it was “extremely cautious” about prospects for the year ahead after it reported a 4% annual profit decline.

USD

“The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending March 11, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate.”

- US Department of Labour

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, hitting the highest level over the past seven weeks, official figures revealed on Thursday. The US Department of Labour reported initial jobless claims rose by 15,000 to a total of 258,000 in the week ended March 17, up from the preceding week’s upwardly revised reading of 243,000. In the meantime, market analysts expected unemployment claims to hit 240,000 during the reported week. Nevertheless, even despite the uptick in last week’s claims, US labour market remained solid, with employers being slow to dismiss workers, as it becomes rather difficult to fill vacancies with experienced employees. The February figure marked the 80th consecutive week of claims below 300,000, which is widely considered as a healthy jobs market. Apart from that, Thursday’s report also featured yearly alterations for previously reported initial and continuing claims, with the latter benchmark dropping 39,000 to settle at 2M over the week ended March 10, while the unemployment rate among those eligible for jobless benefits managed to decline to 1.4% from the 1.5% reading registered previously.

NZD

“Exports of dairy, meat, and fruit were up, but other primary produce exports, including fish, wool, and casein, were down compared with the same month of the previous year.”

- Daria Kwon, International Trade Statistics

The annual trade deficit in New Zealand hit a record of $3.8B in the year ended February 2017, appearing to be the largest since April 2009, Stats NZ reported on Thursday. Goods exports plunged 5.5% compared with the same month of the previous year. The greatest fall of $269M was recorded among ships, boats and floating structures due to the export of drilling platform. Excluding drilling platform, goods exports gained 0.9% mostly because of the solid sales of milk powder, butter and cheese, which soared 5.6%, or $55M. Meat and edible offal gained 4.4%, while exports of fruits and crude oil surged $28M and $6M accordingly.

The import of consumption goods slipped 8.7%. However, it was offset by a 7.0% and a 5.7% increase in intermediate and capital goods imports. As a result, total goods imports nudged 4.0%. The increase was mainly driven by the spike in crude oil imports. Excluding oil, imports of intermediate goods rose only 0.8%, while total imports advanced 1.4%.

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