US Business Cycle Chart Book

Axel Merk Merk Hard Currency Fund

Why is the Business Cycle Important?

S&P 500 (log scale) and official National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) U.S. Recessions

Analysis: Over the 90 years between 1927 and 2017, the average S&P 500 monthly return during expansions was +0.89% (889 months), compared to an average S&P 500 monthly return during recessions of -0.71% (191 months). In terms of proportions of time: expansion months account for about 80% and recession months about 20%. The business cycle also has important implications for Fed policy. *Note that recessions are not announced by the NBER until well after their start dates*

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Author

Axel Merk

Merk Hard Currency Fund

Axel Merk is the Founder and President of Merk Investments. Merk is an expert on macro trends, hard money, international investing and on building sustainable wealth.

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