Up In China, down In the US

Good Day... And A Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Another day of cold, but not as cold, but to me anything below 60 degrees is cold and I don't like it one iota! It's supposed to get warmer for the next few days, so I'll stop complaining... Gold's start to the week was interrupted by the SPTs... The dollar trading was a non event yesterday, and more follows in today's Pfennig... The Pousette-Dart Band greets me this morning with their one hit wonder song: Amnesia... 

Well, the dollar traded in a very tight range yesterday, and after losing 1 index point to 1,205 overnight, it remained there till the end of the day... I told you yesterday, that the dollar had returned to the weak underlying trend, and yesterday's trading just strengthened that thought, as there was no recovery in the dollar, as Traders try to figure out the new parameters of QE, that was announced last week by Fed/Cabal/Cartel chairman, Jerome Powell... 

I gave the reasons that the Fed Heads could have used as the reason they turned back to QE, yesterday, so I won't go trough them again... Just know that there's a reason that the Fed Heads know, and aren't telling us... There's still something rotten in Denmark, folks... 

The SPTs went after Gold yesterday, and the shiny metal saw most of its early morning gain of $47 go down the drain... The SPTs sold short paper Gold and apparently there wasn't enough physical demand to offset the shorts... Gold ended the day up $7 at $4,305... Silver had another banner day.. I read a report yesterday on the GATA sight, that talked about how China had taken over the trading of Silver (and Gold) and soon the SPTs will realize that every time they take a pound of flesh from Silver, The Chinese see this as a buying opportunity and soon, the loss that Silver suffered has been recovered...  I like that ! 

Silver ended the day up $2.14 to $64.13... The Chinese made certain that the SPTs saw their work...  All the fundamentals for Silver remain intact, nothing has changed, and therefore the next stop is $71....  

The price of Oil is really throwing a spanner in the works, by not rallying on the news that Oil tankers are being seized, and the free shipment of Oil no longer exists, there are troubles all over... We've got Ukraine attacking Russian Oil sectors, and Russia announcing that they will attack Ukraine ships... We've got the U.S. announcing that the taking of a Venezuelan Oil tanker last week was just the beginning... And we've got Ships taking their chances going through the Strait of Hormuz...  If one of these areas blows up it could really be a dagger to the heart of Oil shipments... I'm just saying...

The 10-year ended the day trading with a 4.17% yield, up one basis point on the day... Right now, only T-Bills are getting bought by the Fed / Cabal/ Cartel, but it won't take too long for the boys and girls at the Eccles Bldg. To extend the maturities and buy the whole yield curve... At least, that's how I see it playing out... 

In the overnight Markets last night... the dollar slid a bit more in the BBDXY and its down 1 index point overnight. The BBDXY sits at 1,204 to start our day. The currencies, led by the Big Dog, euro, all have moved a bit higher VS the dollar... The SPTs are already out and about pushing Gold & Silver down this morning... Gold is down $11, and Silver is down 99-cents to start our Tuesday... 

This is the first time we've seen the SPTs take their pound of flesh on one day, and then not be followed up by the Chinese buying to offset the SPTs, in a couple of weeks, so I'm not happy about that... 

The price of Oil slid further overnight and starts our day trading with a $55 handle... Go get that gas guzzler folks...  The 10-year Treasury bond is sitting at 4.17% this morning... Where it goes from here only The Shadow Knows... But my thought is that the bond boys will test the Fed's mettle, and see what happens when they throw 4.20% up on the wall and see if it sticks.. 

I couldn't believe it yesterday when rereading the Pfennig that I ended the letter without talking about the Chinese renminbi... The renminbi was allowed to gain VS the dollar to trade with a 7.04 handle...  The renminbi hasn't been this strong VS the dollar since July 2023... So, it's been a month of Sundays since we've seen the renminbi this strong VS the dollar... Oh, and China announced that they had booked a $1 Trillion Trade Surplus! You see, China just went about finding new countries to trade with, once the outrageous tariffs were place on their goods coming to the U.S.... I don't think that was the plan when the tariffs were announced.. But I hate to think that someone didn't think that this could happen... I'm just saying...

In the U.K. They printed a Rocktober GDP that saw their economic growth shrink, and immediately the calls for a rate cut this week from the Bank of England... Inflation is still above their target rate, but as we've seen here in the U.S. that won't stop a Central Bank from debasing their currency... 

The European Central Bank (ECB) will meet on Wednesday... I don't expect them to cut rates at this meeting, so the euro's rise above the 1.17 handle isn't in peril right now.. 

I received this from the good folks at GATA this morning... "CMOC Group, one of China's biggest miners, extended its push into precious metals with a $1 billion deal to buy the Brazilian operations of Equinox Gold Corp.

It will take full ownership of two Equinox entities -- Leagold LatAm Holdings BV and Luna Gold Corp. -- that control several mines or deposits in the South American nation. Equinox will receive $900 million in cash, plus a contingent payment of as much $115 million one year after the deal closes, CMOC said in an exchange filing."

Chuck again... Well, (in my best church lady voice) Isn't that special! Brazil isn't that far from the U.S. how far north will the Chinese go? I saw a cartoon that made me laugh yesterday... The Chinese are one side of the fence and the U.S. is on other side and there are guys on each side with the Chinese throwing bundles of currency over the fence at the U.S. and the U.S. are throwing Gold Bars over the fence at th Chinese... And the caption says: "Who's Winning?"  

I think we all know who the winner is here... Gold holdings in China are much greater than they admit to owning... This has been going on for decades now, and in my estimation, taking in the receipts in Hong Kong, their internal mining and purchases that they have made through the years, I thik China has at least 10,000 tons of Gold, which would make them the leader in the clubhouse for he who owns the most Gold... And when the financial system falters and everyone gets together to sort out the new system backed by Gold, he who has the most Gold will make the rules... I'm just saying... 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, has the Jobs Jamboree for Nov... back to up to date... I think that knowing that the Jobs data was due today, kept the dollar traders from buying dollars yesterday... This could show real rot on labor's vine, and then it could show that labor isn't a problem after all... Of course, this I a Gov't issued report, so all the hedonic adjustments will be applied to the surveys before printing the report. We'll also see Retail Sales for Rocktober... Real Stale numbers, eh? But as I said yesterday, I don't think the BHI indicated any goodness for this report... But the markets seem to think otherwise... 

The STUPID CPI will print on Thursday, as I'm getting an IV in me for my infusion, the STUPID CPI will show that inflation is still sticky and probably rising.. 

Also in Data... I saw this on Reuters.com this morning... "Ford Motor said it will take a $19.5 billion write-down and is killing several electric-vehicle models." Uh-Oh... 

To recap.. The dollar trading was a non-event yesterday, but the SPTs went after Gold on the day... Silver had a banner day, gaining $2.14, after seeing tons of short trades on Friday...  The jobs Jamboree for Rocktober prints this morning along with Retail Sales... Chuck mentions the Chinese renminbi this morning, and The BOE will probably cut rates on Wednesday when they meet. 

For What It's Worth... We're getting closer to the end of the year and with the year end, comes forecasts for 2026... This article resembles that, as a French Bank tells its clients to remain long Gold...

Here's your snippet: "Gold will continue to outperform U.S. bonds and the greenback through 2026, which is why one major bank is maintaining its maximum allocation and recommends that investors buy the precious metal on dips.

Ahead of the new year, market analysts at Société Générale said they are maintaining a 10% allocation to gold in their multi-asset portfolio. The French bank is holding its gold allocation steady as it reduces its exposure to U.S. inflation-linked bonds to zero and cuts its corporate bond holdings by half, to 5%.

“In a year when fixed income has struggled and USD weakness has weighed on the common-currency return of USD assets, SGMAP has performed well with balanced allocation. Our theme of broadening in asset price performance is reflected in the performance of various equity markets and other assets like gold,” the analysts said in their latest report. “Going forward, we expect this broadening theme to persist amid falling interest rates in the US.”

The analysts reiterated their call for gold prices to hit $5,000 an ounce by the end of next year."

Chuck again... Well, you now know where Societe Generale stands with Gold... Most importantly is that they talk about diversified investment portfolios... Something that I've stressed for decades now...  

Market Prices 12/16/2025: American Style: A$.6532, kiwi .5780, C$ .7264, euro 1.1764, sterling 1.3428, Swiss $1.2586, European Style: rand 16.7778, krone 10.1880, SEK 9.3013, forint 326.73, zloty 3.5870, koruna 20.6678, RUB 79.39, yen 154.17, sing 1.2893, HKD 7.7792, INR 91.03, China 7.0423, peso 17.95, BRL 5.9370, BBDXY 1,204, Dollar Index 98.12, Oil $55.37, 10-year 4.17%, Silver $63.15, Platinum $1,827.00, Palladium $1,590.00, Copper $5.32, and Gold... $4,294.

That's it for today... Our Blues lost again last night... UGH! They seem to be unable to put a string of good games together... Lots of injuries right now for the team... Well, the tension begins to build for college football fans... The first playoff game will be played Friday night, with the winner of the game to play Indiana... Congrats to Fernando Mendoza the winner of the Heisman, this year for College football's best player... The young man that finished 2^nd didn't display good sportsmanship for sure! Too bad.. He ruined his image, and hurt the University he represented... Oh, well, I read to my darling daughter Dawin's kindergarten class today... I need to make sure my voice is ready! The Electric Light Orchestra takes us to the finish line today with their first hit song: Hold On Tight... I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and PLEASE Be Good To Yourself!