United States: Two-speed growth
Growth in the United States is expected to come close to its potential pace in 2026. This resilience would mask “K-shaped growth”, supported by AI-optimism related investment and consumption by the wealthiest. Investment in other areas of the economy is not as dynamic, while most Americans face persistent inflation and a deteriorating labour market. At the end of Q1 2026, the Fed is expected to end its cycle of monetary easing, due to an emphasis on the employment component of its dual mandate. The fiscal impulse is expected to remain slightly negative in 2026 due to tariffs, with their scope still a key issue.
Growth supported by optimism around AI
Growth experienced unusual variability in 2025 due to temporary factors: volatility in goods imports (H1 2025) and the federal government shutdown (Q4 2025). In our view, the latter reduced Q4 2025 growth to +0.0% q/q (a loss that will be recouped later) against +0.8% q/q in Q3[1]. GDP growth is expected to be more stable in 2026, at around +0.4% q/q per quarter (from Q2), with an annual average of +1.9%, as in 2025. Therefore, growth would be close to its potential pace, but characterised by a change in its drivers and a moderation in employment.
Author
BNP Paribas Team
BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.
