Ukraine support tracker
On the radar
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Inflation rate in Slovakia went up to 3.9% y/y in January.
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There are no releases scheduled for today.
Economic developments
According to the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker, over the past 3 years of war, donor countries have provided support of about EUR 80 billion per year. Europe as a whole has clearly overtaken the US in terms of Ukraine aid. In total, Europe has allocated EUR 70 billion in financial and humanitarian aid as well as EUR 62 billion in military aid. This compares to EUR 64 billion in military aid from the US as well as EUR 50 billion in financial and humanitarian allocations. Within Europe, in absolute terms, Germany is the single most important donor, providing EUR 17 billion in total, closely followed by the UK with EUR 15 billion and Denmark with EUR 8 billion. If scaled for the country’s GDP, then the Baltic and Nordic states have allocated the highest share of aid as a percentage of their pre-war GDP. Within the region Poland, Slovakia and Croatia have allocated the most within the CEE region. Hungary, on the other hand, barely 0.03% of GDP.
Market movements
The Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty have appreciated on Monday, while long-term yields declined everywhere but Poland and Slovenia. Romania sold RON 676.7 of 2027 local currency bonds with solid demand as bid-to-cover ratio was at 1.53. Slovakia also successfully sold a range of government papers with bid-to-cover ratio close to or above 2. In Hungary the outgoing policy maker Pleschinger said there is no room for Hungarian central bank to cut key policy rate this year. Since March, Hungarian central bank will have new leadership.
As for global developments, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted fellow leaders in Paris Monday. Even though joint bonds weren’t specifically addressed, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said new funding measures would be presented in time for an upcoming March 20-21 summit.
Author
Erste Bank Research Team
Erste Bank
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