- UK Retail Sales seen falling by 0.3% in April, core monthly reading foreseen at -0.5%
- Brexit chaos and the end of PM May's political career to keep Sterling subdued.
The UK is scheduled to publish its Retail Sales report for April this Friday at 8:30 GMT. According to preliminary estimates, sales are expected to have declined by 0.3% in April, after advancing 1.1% in March. The core monthly reading, which excludes volatile oil prices, is seen decreasing by 0.5%. Yearly basis, retail sales are seen up by 4.6% vs. the previous 6.7% gain.
The UK is not doing good in the data front lately, but as inflation released earlier this week missed the market's expectations. The yearly CPI resulted at 2.1%, better than the previous 1.9%, although below the 2.2% expected. Still, data is the lesser of the concerns for those aiming to buy the Sterling, as Brexit keeps stealing the show.
UK PM May announced this week she would present a revamped withdrawal deal on Friday, only triggering the outrage of allies and enemies within the government. The Leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom stepped down a few hours after his announcement, while other ministers menaced to follow her lead. The 1922 Committee met, trying to change their rules to allow submitting PM May to another no-confidence vote. They failed to reach an agreement, buying her some additional time, although the treasurer of the Committee, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, said that they would allow a new no-confidence vote in the PM if she doesn't announce her resignation this Friday.
Meanwhile, May's spokesman hit the wires reporting that PM May was meeting ministers and "listening to their concern on the bill," also repeating that the prime minister is focused on delivering Brexit, making sure that the UK would leave the EU with a deal. She seems to be living in a parallel reality to that of the rest of UK politicians, with the more she does, the more the fury among them.
GBP/USD Technical Outlook
In this scenario, the GBP/USD pair lost roughly 600 pips ever since topping at 1.3176 this month, and despite a modest bounce Thursday, the extreme oversold conditions persist. Even a better-than-expected Retail Sales' outcome, would likely fall short of moving much the Pound to the upside, and the most likely scenario is that any spike would likely attract sellers. The bearish scenario is will likely be exacerbated by a disappointing figure, with the pair then poised to break below 1.2600.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh hints on next week's price action.
GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's appearance.
Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230, US PCE eyed
Gold price hit all-time highs at $2,236 on Thursday to finish Q1 2024 with a bang. Most major world markets, including the US are closed due to Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued. US PCE inflation and Powell are awaited.
Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern
Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.
Key events in developed markets next week
Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.