Trump Tweets “Manufacturing Blowout”: What's the Real Story?
President Trump quickly hopped on the GM strike-end surge in jobs. Let's have a look.
Manufacturing Blowout
“This is a blowout. Look at these manufacturing numbers, a blowout.” @MariaBartiromo
Manufacturing Employment
The last two months average +5.5. there is no surge in manufacturing employment.
Employment in Motor Vehicles and Parts
Average out the last two months and you get an impressive -1 in October and an equally impressive -1 in November. That's a small decline in 7 of the last 9 months.
Manufacturing Average Weekly Hours Year-Over-Year
Manufacturing Average Weekly Hours Year-Over-Year Detail
That chart is the most telling of the lot.
Despite the end of the strike there is no improvement in manufacturing hours of actual production workers!
Seasonal Adjustments
Much of that rebound is related to the GM strike that ended on October 25.
Some of it is a calendar-related seasonal adjustment.
BLS sampling started within days of the strike ending. Then, Thanksgiving came into play giving an additional seasonal boost.
Yet, manufacturing hours of actual production workers did not even budge.
Author
Mike “Mish” Shedlock's
Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc
