Trump is behind in every recent battleground poll
Biden Now Leads in Six States Key to Trump’s 2016 Victory, most by significant margins.
Biden’s improved polling in battleground states comes from a cross-section of demographic groups, but the Times poll shows the most significant movement comes among White voters -- especially college-educated ones -- and young people. He’s also flipped voters age 65 and older to his column, which helps to explain his standing in Florida and Arizona.
Only 31% of battleground voters approve of Trump’s response to the Floyd protests, and 63% say they would rather that the president address the causes of discriminatory policing than cracking down on protesters.
The roots of Trump’s troubles in Michigan may be deeper. There, 37% of voters say Trump treated the state more unfairly than most in responding to the coronavirus after the president feuded with Governor Gretchen Whitmer over her criticism of the federal response.
The Times poll shows neither candidate getting more than 50% support in any battleground state, suggesting that there’s still room for undecided voters to have an impact.
And state-level polling -- despite its key to forecasting the Electoral College result -- is generally less reliable than national polling. In 2016, national polls were largely accurate in predicting a popular vote win for Clinton but failed to anticipate Trump’s narrow victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Recent Battleground State Polls
Above composite created from 538 Latest Poll list.
Rating the Raters
538 rates Siena as A+, Marquette Law A/B, Quinnipiac B+, and Public Policy VB.
Margins of Error
Yes the polls were wrong in 2016, but more so at the state level where it mattered.
But Trump barely won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
All of those states were within the margin of error.
Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are no longer within the margin of error.
Florida and Arizona are borderline. Ohio and North Carolina are within the margin of error but Trump can still win.
Trump Can Still Win
I rate Biden's odds of winning at 70%.
People do not understand these things, mostly because they don't want to, so let me spell out the math.
The Math
- 70 ≠ 100
- 30 ≠ 0
- 30 ≠ 95
Plug in any numbers you want, but if you think Trump is in the lead, think of yourself as mathematically challenged as well as having TDS Type II.
Factors
- There are just over 4 months to the election.
- It is no longer that early (but it also is not irrecoverably late).
- Trump's path of victory is extremely narrow.
- Biden's path of victory is wide.
- The economy is in recession.
- Swing voters indicate they are sick of Trump.
- No matter what you believe, polls show people strongly disapprove of Trump's handling of Covid.
- No matter what you believe, people strongly disapprove of Trump's handling of George Floyd.
- Focus on superficial issues like Lobsters is damn silly.
- Trump just cannot stay away from inane Tweets of all sorts.
Law and Order Tweets are Counterproductive
ChinaVirus Tweets are Counterproductive
If you disagree please see point 7 above.
Blatant Lie on Lobsters
Trump doubles down on nearly everything, including lobsters.
The fact of the matter is Trump destroyed the lobster industry with inane tariffs.
I Believe These Are Yours
Trump Lies From Lobsters to Ventilators
Bloomberg called out Trump Lies today in regards to sinking polls.
The president on Wednesday night announced some new initiatives to help the Maine lobster industry, and accompanied the plan with a false tweet claiming that “Pres. Obama destroyed the lobster and fishing industry in Maine.
Sure, he can keep falsely claiming that Obama destroyed the lobster industry. But no one aside from his strongest supporters is going to believe him, and reporters are going to check the facts because they expect to prove him wrong.
After all, they’ve surely seen CNN’s reporting on Trump’s “wildly inaccurate” claims that Obama had left him no ventilators; it turns out that according to the administration’s own figures the number was actually 16,000 — or more than they’ve distributed so far during the coronavirus outbreak. And this is hardly the only tall tale that Trump has repeated.
For further discussion, please see Trump Threatens China Over Lobsters.
Fake News of the Day
On June 24, Trump proclaimed "States Testing Too Much".
This was the Fake News of the Day
Texas was one of the 5 states Trump complained about. He shut down testing at some Texas sites including Dallas.
Texas Halts Reopening Due to Coronavirus Surge
Today Texas was forced to Halt Reopening Due to Coronavirus Surge
Guess who prodded Arizona, Florida, and Texas to reopen early.
If you do not believe Biden is hugely in the lead, then you have TDS II.
But it's not over yet.
70 ≠ 100
The one poll that matters is in November.
But the way Trump is headed, it is far more likely Trump loses in a landslide than he wins at all.
Author
Mike “Mish” Shedlock's
Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc
Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor for SitkaPacific Capital Management.
