Trump backs down on tariff threats

Peter Iosif, ACA, MBA IronFX

Trump’s tariffs on Europeans are paused

US President Trump postponed the placement of tariffs, as the possibility of a deal over Greenland emerged. Market sentiment improved, supporting riskier assets, allowing US equities to reversing some of Tuesday’s losses and halting Bitcoin’s drop.

Final Q3 US GDP rate and December’s US PCE rates eyed

Today, we highlight the release of the final US GDP rate for Q3 and the PCE rates for December and a possible acceleration could mean faster growth of the US economy and a resilience of inflationary pressures, which could harden the Fed’s intentions to remain on hold for longer, thus providing support for USD and weighing on gold’s price and US equities.

BoJ’s interest rate decision

BoJ is to deliver its interest rate decision in tomorrow’s Asian session and is widely expected to remain on hold. If actually so, which is our base scenario as well, market attention is expected to turn towards the bank’s forward guidance and a possibly more than expected hawkish tone could support the JPY.

AUD rallies on stronger than expected employment data

The Aussie rallied in today’s Asian session, as Australia’s employment data for December showed a tighter-than-expected Australian employment market. The release could enhance market expectations for RBA to remain on hold throughout the year.

Intel’s earnings report in focus

Intel’s share price jumped around 9% yesterday and today we highlight the release of its earnings report. Possible better-than-expected EPS and revenue figures, accompanied by a possibly optimistic forward guidance, could provide additional support.

Charts to keep an eye out

Intel’s share price rose approximately 9% yesterday breaking clearly the 50.30 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. We maintain our bullish outlook as long as the upward trendline guiding the share’s price remains intact. Please note that Intel’s price action has reached overbought territory and seems ripe for a correction lower. Should the bulls maintain control, we may see intel’s share price breaking the 56.15 (R1) resistance line and start aiming for the 63.80 (R2) resistance level. Should the bears take over, which we consider as remote currently, we may see the share’s price action cutting through the 50.30 (S1) support line, the prementioned upward trendline, the 43.85 (S2) support barrier and pave the way for the 39.55 (S3) level.

USD/JPY edged higher during today’s Asian session, yet for the time being seems to remain just above the 157.80 (S1) support line, unconvincing of its bullish tendencies. Nevertheless we maintain our bullish outlook as the pair’s movement continues to respect the upward trendline guiding it and the RSI indicator implies a bullish market predisposition. Should the bulls remain in control, we may see the pair aiming for the 161.90 (R1) resistance line. Should the bears take over, we may see USD/JPY breaking the prementioned upward trendline, breaking also the 157.80 (S1) support line clearly and continue lower actively aiming for the 0.6375 (S2) support level.

Other highlights for the day

Today get Turkey’s CBT interest rate decision, Canada’s January business barometer, the US weekly initial jobless claims figure and the weekly EIA crude oil inventories, while later on we get New Zealand’s CPI rates for Q4. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get Japan’s and Australia’s preliminary PMI figures for January while from Japan we also get the December CPI rates.

Calendar follows

Intel daily chart

Support: 50.30 (S1), 43.85 (S2), 39.55 (S3).
Resistance: 56.15 (R1), 63.80 (R2), 69.15 (R3).

USD/JPY daily chart

Support: 157.80 (S1), 154.30 (S2), 151.50 (S3).
Resistance: 161.90 (R1), 165.00 (R2), 168.00 (R3).

Author

Peter Iosif, ACA, MBA

IronFX

Mr. Iosif joined IronFX in 2017 as part of the sales force. His high level of competence and expertise enabled him to climb up the company ladder quickly and move to the IronFX Strategy team as a Research Analyst. Mr.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.