Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
Starting Tuesday, we're watching the Canadian CPI print closely. The Bank of Canada's recent minutes suggested hesitation about the last rate cut, hinting they might delay further cuts. This makes the upcoming inflation data crucial; stronger-than-expected inflation might push out expectations of a July rate cut, strengthening the CAD. Conversely, a significant miss could reinforce the likelihood of easing, providing a clear selling opportunity on the CAD.
Wednesday brings us to Australian CPI, a critical indicator for anticipating RBA's next moves. Given the RBA’s cautious stance recently highlighted by first-quarter inflation risks, this data could set the tone for market expectations regarding further rate hikes. A strong CPI print might bolster the AUD, particularly against the NZD, whereas a miss could ease concerns about immediate rate hikes.
As we progress through the week, Thursday seems quiet with US GDP and durable goods data unlikely to move markets significantly. However, all eyes will be on Friday for the US PCE print, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. After the Fed's recent meeting signalling only one expected rate cut this year, a high PCE print could reinforce dollar strength and impact equity markets negatively.
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