Trading ideas: EUR/USD long in good shape after ECB

The ECB remains constructive. Today, it left monetary policy unchanged, confirming its expectation that net asset purchases will stop in December and policy rates will remain at their current levels at least through the summer of 2019. The ECB also broadly confirmed its outlook for GDP and CPI as well as the risks to growth, with the latter still seen as broadly balanced amid resilient domestic demand. The only concession to the doves was the acknowledgement that uncertainty relating to protectionism, emerging markets and financial market volatility “gained more prominence recently”. The ECB did not discuss its reinvestment policy today, but Draghi stated that the ECB will shed some light here by December.

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold and highlighted greater financial market concerns about Brexit, a month after raising borrowing costs.

This is how trades now:


Trading strategy: Long

Open: 1.1550

Target: 1.1750

Stop-loss: 1.1605 (raised from 1.1450)

Recommended size: 2.00 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: Fourteen-day momentum remains positive, reinforcing the overall upside potential. The scope is for gains through the 1.1734 August peak. We remain long at 1.1550 for 1.1750 target. We have raised our stop to 1.1605 to lock in some profit. EUR/USD reaction after today’s ECB meeting is encouraging.



Trading strategy: Buy

Open: 1.3030

Target: -

Stop-loss: 1.2930

Recommended size: 1.50 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: We see more intensive push inside the daily cloud and a pick up in 14-day momentum, which suggest near-term outlook remains bullish. We have raised our bid to 1.3030. 



Trading strategy: Short

Open: 111.30

Target: 109.30

Stop-loss: 112.30

Recommended size: 1.67 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: Bulls have once again broken above the daily cloud top, now at 111.58 and are now seeking a daily close above the 111.88 Fibo, a 61.8% retrace of the 113.18 to 109.78 (July to August) fall. Bulls should be mindful of previous false breaks above the cloud top, however.



Trading strategy: Sell

Open: 1.3065

Target: -

Stop-loss: 1.3200

Recommended size: 1.44 mini lots per $10,000 in your account

Short analysis: USD/CAD breaks below 100-day MA (1.3039) on NAFTA talks and higher oil prices. On the other hand, the support area just below 1.3000 is holding for now, with more firm support tipped ahead of 1.2900 at 1.2915 the lower 21-d Bolli and then the 200-DMA by 1.2860. Our trading strategy is to sell on upticks.



Trading strategy: Await signal

Open: -

Target: -

Stop-loss: -

Recommended size: -

Short analysis: Bounce from the 2018 low extends and nears the 10-day MA. Daily RSI is biased up so this bounce might extend. Monthly techs remain bearish though. Signals are a bit mixed so we will stand aside until the outlook clears before entering a position



Trading strategy: Await signal

Open: -

Target: -

Stop-loss: -

Recommended size: -

Short analysis: Bear bias holding on dailies but doji action still suggests a lack of market conviction. However, failure to regain ground above the daily cloud top will keep balance skewed for further losses. 55-day MA (0.8926) could also prove a key level. We stand aside.







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