Trading GBP/USD before Jackson Hole

Weekly thoughts

This week we’re looking at Sterling.

And it’s one of those rare occasions where we’re considering the Fundamentals as well as charts :)

Back on August 7, the Bank of England cut interest rates but GBP closed the day higher vs all major currencies. That’s unusual and worthy of deeper investigation.

What happened was a so-called ‘Hawkish cut’ where despite the dovish action, a split vote among the British central bankers left the market feeling hawkish because it could be the last cut for a while. A week later, the biggest dissent since the 90s at the Federal Reserve suggests a US rate cut is coming as soon as September whereby a weaker USD should support a stronger GBP.

We could get some confirmation from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole this Friday.

Looking at the same currency across multiple forex pairs can help give you an overall view about what’s happening - and strengthen your conviction to trade those pairs.

So while the BOE and FOMC directly affect GBP/USD, we can look at other pairs like GBP/JPY and GBP/AUD to gauge the overall strength and/or weakness of GBP.

As it happens, GBP has been trending higher for most of 2025. GBP/USD and GBP/JPY and GBP/AUD have been in uptrends. EUR/GBP is the exception whereby the euro has been stronger than the pound.

However, since July, the uptrend paused and set up possible bearish reversals.

Of course, no market can keep rising indefinitely - it has to pause occasionally and eventually the trend reverses and it starts to fall. So it makes sense that after trending higher all year - GBP would face one of these scenarios.

What’s interesting is that the timing of the BOE meeting happened just at key breakdown levels for GBP across several pairs. Because of the market’s hawkish interpretation - GBP created false breakdowns across all these pairs.

We don’t claim to know the future but if the market can’t break down it tends to break upwards shortly afterwards - that implies bullish setups in GBP/USD, GBP/JPY and GBP/AUD.

Let’s dig into that below..

Setups & signals

We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.

GBP/USD

Setup

GBP shows a long term rising wedge pattern. After a small move above the top of the wedge, price declined until just before its 30 week moving average and has since bounced back strongly, though remains below the prior high.

Signal

On the daily chart, price broke below a rising trendline and RSI fell back into oversold territory for the first time since the start of the year. However, that was followed by a strong bounce back over the broken trendline. A breakout over 1.355 then the old high would confirm the uptrend has resumed.

GBP/JPY

Setup

Price broke out of a triangle pattern but after a successful test of prior highs at 200 psychological resistance, dropped back to the broken upper trendline of the triangle only to rebound back to the big 200 level.

Signal

The price snapped below its rising trendline on the daily chart as well as a price pivot at 196 - and RSI fell below support from the 50-level before rebounding sharply to form a new multi-week high. A daily close over 200 should confirm the uptrend has resumed.

GBP/AUD

Setup

After a multi-week surge from below 2.0 to over 2.15, the price pulled back 61.8% of the gains and rebounded from just under its 30-week SMA. A break of a down trendline connecting the 3 peaks could signify a resumption of the long term uptrend.

Signal

The daily chart shows price attempting a break below a rising trendline and RSI dipping below support before rallying back above it - just like the other GBP pairs. A breakout over 2.10 would confirm the bullish momentum.

But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think?