Trade talks progress continues to boost equities

An extension to the March 1 deadline for China tariffs after “substantial progress in the trade talks in Washington is expected to lift Wall Street, though details remain scant, so far. The German rally is hampered by more weak data.

US30USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The US30 index pushed to a fresh 3-1/2 month high in early trading today, boosted by progress on the trade negotiation front

• The index touched the highest since November 9 this morning after closing above the psychological 26,000 mark on Friday for the first time since November 8. The November high was 26,249

• It’s a slow start to the week on the data front, with January’s Chicago Fed activity index and February’s Dallas Fed manufacturing index on tap. Fed’s Clarida is scheduled to speak.

DE30EUR Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The Germany30 index edged higher on Friday, despite another weak data print confirming that the domestic economy is facing severe headwinds

• The index has extended gains this morning, taking its cue form US index futures, reaching the highest since December 3

• Friday’s IFO surveys for February weakened across the board, with the expectations index slumping to 93.8, the lowest since July 2009. There are no data releases scheduled for today.

CN50USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The China50 index posted its biggest one-day gain in two weeks on Friday, lifted by reported progress with the trade talks

• The index is attempting to hold above the 11,987 level, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2018 drop

• Aside from developments on the trade front, the major data point for this week will be Thursday’s release of PMI data for February. Investors may be hoping that a further rebound in the manufacturing PMI could extend the recent bullish run.