|

Three reasons why Catalan secessionists won

Are you surprised by the Catalan election results? You must have been blind before the elections then.

Let me tell you three reasons why the strive for independence represented by Catalonia regional elections flourished…

First, there is no power in the world to silence the voice crying for independence. Do you need some examples? Of course, there are plenty. Let’s begin with post-communist countries. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, all belonged to the former Soviet Union and now those countries are all independent member state of European Union. Need some more? Ok, so let’s go with Czechs and Slovaks separated peacefully back in 1993 and now both belong to the family of EU member countries. 

History is giving us an important lesson. Trying to silence the voice of independence does not work long term…. and in case of Spain, it did not work even short-term. The central government in Madrid thought it is good to keep the snap elections term as short as possible. Let’s not allow secessionists to get together. That must have been their claim. But with secessionist movement winning the elections, it looks like this strategy did not work. 

With Spanish court issuing the international crime warrant for the front runners of Catalan independence like Carles Puigdemont, just to cancel it soon after, looks like a fail.

Basically said Spain wanted Puigdemont to stay in prison for twenty or more years for treason, but then it decided that this is not the case. Canceling the international crime warrant, therefore, looked silly. It meant that Puigdemont was being guilty in eyes of the Spanish court, while there was no crime committed from the international perspective.

This looks like a double measure at the first glance. I am not an international law expert, but this looks suspicious to me and I am sure it did look suspicious to hundreds, or thousands of Catalans, even without a degree in law or philosophy.

The second reason why the secessionist movement in Catalonia won this election is that of the time given by the central government between the administrative takeover and the regional elections. While administrative takeover was triggered on October 28, the term for Catalan elections was chosen as early as possible aiming in not to allow the secessionist forces to unite. Nevertheless, the strive for independence looks like having more loyal supporters.

To say it simply, there was not enough water in the river of Ebre for Catalans not to remember the brutality of the Spanish government trying to suppress the Independence referendum from October 1, especially with police forces arriving on Walt Disney pained ferry, that made whole effort look even more surreal… 

And here we are… at the heart of surrealism, in Catalonia. In city of Figueres, or event more picturesque city of Cadaques.

The third reason for Catalan independence claiming political parties to win lies in heart of Spain in Madrid. People in Catalonia oppose the royalist regime in Madrid because they really think it is spoilt and rotten.

Just look at the ruling political party, Partido Popular. It is tied to many corruption linked scandals and many people representing the ruling party are in jail for serious misconduct.

That is not the way Catalans picture their own future. They work hard for the fortune of the country and for the fortune of themselves, but enough is enough. 

Although the path to the Catalan independence will not be a direct pass from Messi to Suarez, in FC Barcelona style, the message is clear. Clean the mess or we shall break free. Whatever the consequences. 

Author

Mario Blascak, PhD

Mario Blascak, PhD

Independent Analyst

Dr. Mário Blaščák worked in professional finance and banking for 15 years before moving to journalism. While working for Austrian and German banks, he specialized in covering markets and macroeconomics.

More from Mario Blascak, PhD
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD moves sideways below 1.1800 on Christmas Eve

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel below 1.1800 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bond and stock markets in the US will open at the usual time and close early on Christmas Eve, allowing the trading action to remain subdued. 

GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets

GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders move to the sidelines heading into the holiday season. 

Gold retreats from record highs, trades below $4,500

Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin slips below $87,000 as ETF outflows intensify, whale participation declines

Bitcoin price continues to trade around $86,770 on Wednesday, after failing to break above the $90,000 resistance. US-listed spot ETFs record an outflow of $188.64 million on Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive day of withdrawals.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Avalanche struggles near $12 as Grayscale files updated form for ETF

Avalanche trades close to $12 by press time on Wednesday, extending the nearly 2% drop from the previous day. Grayscale filed an updated form to convert its Avalanche-focused Trust into an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.