The year ends with a dud

Good day… and a Marvelous Monday to you! Happy New Year, although I think those words will not ring true in 2026, but then that’s just me… I’m in my winter home now for the next 3-4 months… I only book a one-way ticket to come here, and decide when to go home much later… Buddy Miles greets me this morning with his song: Down By The River…

Well, the year, 2025 ended with a whimper… Everyone who was still on a trading desk at 3pm est on Wednesday, was making certain that Gold didn’t show a gain, Silver didn’t show a gain, Copper didn’t show a gain, and etc. With the dollar bugs, the only ones to get the asset higher in price, to end the year. Bonds ended the year with the 10-year’s yield gaining… And the price of Oil getting dumped on to end the year. The year end prices were: Gold $4,317, Silver $71.54, Copper $5.64, BBDXY 1,203, Oil $57.42, and the 10-year’s yield was 4.16%

Friday saw a hit and miss data in trading as most senior traders were still celebrating their holiday. As with the start of every year, that I recall that is, the dollar was bought on the first day of the year, and the BBDXY ended Friday at 1,204… Its seems to me that each year the dollar bugs are all out talking about how the dollar is going to be strong the coming year, and by the end of January they are nowhere to be seen or heard. I guess we’ll see what’s in store for us regarding the dollar, my guess? I tend to think that the dollar is in for a world of hurt this year…

How’s that diversification out of some dollars going for you?

I used to ask a question to the audiences that I talked to this: You don’t hold just one stock in your account, do you? You don’t wear just one set of clothes, do you? Then who among you only holds one currency? My claim to fame was diversification, no matter when the dollar was strong or weak…

You need to diversify to make sure that if the dollar gets beaten to hell with hand sledge, that you don’t suffer the losses in purchasing power…

There! I’ve said enough on that!

Oh, and where to diversify?

I know, I know, the end of currencies around the world will come some day… But until then, there’s no worry from me on investing in them… Besides, the ending will be very pronounced, and you’ll have plenty of time to react…

Well, we as a country entered another conflict on Friday, sending in missiles and bombs to Venequela, and capturing the leader of the country. It was quick and dirty, and I’m not going to say either way how I feel about this, but the one thing that I think that most people have missed with all the drugs talk veiling the truth, as I see it, it was a move to eliminate Oil shipments to Russia and China… That’s how I see it, and you can argue with me if you think I’m incorrect, but you won’t change my mind…

I’m having connectivity problems down here this morning. My iPad and phone connect, but my laptop and TV won’t connect… so that means I’m having to attempt to get this out via my iPad but it’s not the same so if I had hair I would be pulling it out right now! So, I’m cutting this short today, hope you don’t mind…

Well, we’re finally getting back to the normal period of time for printing data releases… This will be the first normal week, and it’s full of data prints, but the most important of them all will come when the Jobs Jamboree returns on Friday this week… The Fed Heads claim their rate cuts are to help with the slump in labor markets, but C’mon we all know better than that! So, get ready for a week of data prints, just not any today!

To recap… well, the year ended with the SPTs holding the con on the metals, and making certain that they didn’t show a year-end gain… Gold closed the 2025 year at $4,317, and Silver at $71.54. The dollar bugs had to do the same with the dollar and the BBDXY ended the year at 1,203… Down 8.3% for the year, the worst year for the dollar since 2011… Friday’s trading was hit and miss on thiings, as the senior traders were still on holiday…

For What It’s Worth… I read this piece from Matthew Piepenburg of Van Greyerz Gold over the weekend and once again I was blown away by Matthew’s words, of which I have cut out a piece for the FWIW… In it he talks of the pending gloom and doom for the U.S. and this piece really lights a fire and it can be found here: Gold’s Bigger Picture in a Narrowing 2026.

Here’s your snippet: “This brings us to the Fed in 2026. Will or can it tow the White House’s line to further rate cutting and more QE? The likely answer is yes, and not because of politics, but because of basic survival.

The Fed’s Real Mandate & Problem

The Fed’s real mandate is bond market stability, not inflation, which is an open lie, and not employment, which is equally so. Given that the post-2022, weaponized USD is openly unloved and untrusted, someone has to buy Uncle Sam’s debt, and that won’t be China or Japan.

Japan has been dumping USTs to support its own broken credit markets and Yen, and China, well… it has been walking away from USTs (in favor of gold) in a staggering manner. Its FX reserves were once 40% USTs; by 2025, that figure had fallen to less than 1%:

Given the fact that less UST demand means lower bond prices and hence rising bond yields, Uncle Sam is in deep trouble heading into 2026.

Rising bond yields are an absolute terror to bankrupt debtors like the US, because it means the interest expense on its debt, already over $1T/year, gets even harder to repay.

The Bond Market’s Real Power

For this reason, DC needs to keep yields and rates down. The Fed has thus been pushing rates down in 2025, but as we also saw in 2001, yields still climbed despite the Fed’s rate cuts, a terrifying confirmation that the Fed’s tools are breaking down as the bond market, rather than Powell, takes the wheel.

In 2025, 70% of Uncle Sam’s IOUs were short-duration bonds, which need to be paid back soon. This will be entirely unsustainable going into 2026 unless Powell breaks out bazooka money printing and becomes a perma-buyer of our own debt with mouse-clicked dollars.

This should be a tailwind for precious metals.”

Chuck again… Another thought that I had about The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is that they’ve painted themselves into a corner, and that the only way to survive is to print the heck out of money and buy bonds that keep the U.S. economy afloat…

Market Prices 1/5/2026: American Style: A$ .6681, kiwi.5758, C$ .7256, euro 1.1679, sterling 1.3461, Swiss $1.2526, European Style: Rand 16.4217, krone 10.0923, SEK 9.2336, forint 328.78, zloty 3.2878, koruna 20.7112, RUB 80.86, yen 156.65, sing 1.2866, HKD 7.7867, INR 90.25, China 6.9849, peso 17.97, BRL 5.4419, BBDXY 1,207, Oil $57.78, 10-year 4.18%, Silver $75.27, Platinum $2,207.00, Palladium $1,675.00, Copper $5.88, and Gold….. $4,409.

That’s it for today… Well, on New Year’s Day… the College Football Playoffs were a dud, except for the last game of the day… My bracket is toast, so I won’t be going back and looking at it any longer! Was Texas Tech really that bad? And was Ole Miss really that good? Questions… My travel time down here couldn’t have gone any better, we moved along just fine , no problems! In Nashville, where we changed planes, the wheelchair guy was waiting for me and addressed me by my name… pretty impressive!

Well, the wolf moon is a Super Moon and was out over the ocean last night and looked awesome! Bob Marley and the Whalers take us to the finish line this morning with their song: 3 Little Birds… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!